Oman hosted indirect U.S.-Iran talks on a nuclear framework; a deal remains uncertain as both sides hold firm on red lines.
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The venue change underscores Oman’s unique trust with Tehran. However, its traditional discreet mediation may now be insufficient. Muscat must candidly persuade Iran that interpreting U.S. engagement as weakness is a dangerous illusion, to avert an accidental war.
The struggle reflects broader proxy competition, as Riyadh aims to block arms smuggling to the Houthis and curb Emirati influence, while Muscat fears Salafi expansion. Local tensions are managed through tribal codes but risk escalating without direct Saudi-Omani dialogue.
The visit signals Oman’s intent to enhance defense autonomy through Turkish military technology while expanding trade, energy links, and tourism. This aligns with Turkey’s Gulf outreach and Oman’s strategy to reduce external dependencies and foster economic diversification.
The STC’s capture of Yemen’s eastern border with Oman shattered Muscat’s security, forcing unprecedented coordination with Saudi Arabia to expel the separatists. The episode shows that neutrality offers no protection, only a fragile hope of containing regional spillover.