No victor in Iran war. US credibility frays. Gulf hedges. China waits to gain.
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Hormuz is Iran’s tested weapon. No military reopening. Tolls and linkage diplomacy follow.
Periodic Iran strikes won’t work. Iran is not Hamas. The strait becomes a permanent weapon.
Iran’s true doomsday weapon: the strait. Easy to close. Nearly impossible to reopen.
Four Iran war scenarios. The strait and China decide whether US primacy erodes or a global contest ignites.
US blockade on Iran begins. Coercive economic warfare replaces diplomacy as nuclear and missile gaps prove unbridgeable.
Iraq’s oil export paralysis underscores the strategic cost of domestic political deadlock and the necessity of external mediation to secure global energy flows.
Ten US radars hit. Israeli airspace is penetrable. Detection failures, not just munitions shortage. US bases now vulnerable.
Oil above $110. Global South bears the cost. Trust in US security guarantees is eroding. International norms are crumbling.
83% of Iranian strikes hit GCC. UAE suffers most. Gulf states resist joining war but US bases are liabilities.