Strategic divergence over Gaza and Iran has shattered U.S.-European alignment, threatening the core structural pillars of the broader transatlantic alliance.
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Maliki’s previous tenure saw massive corruption, sectarian conflict, and the rise of ISIS. While his allies tout his experience, critics warn his return risks renewed instability and U.S. sanctions, as Iraq’s political blocs remain deeply divided over his candidacy.
Washington’s failure to counter China’s global inroads—from Somaliland to Iraq and South Asia—risks strategic defeat. Without integrating China policy across regions, U.S. actions remain fragmented, allowing Beijing to expand its political, economic, and military footprint unchecked.
Without Palestinian majority representation on the Board of Peace, enforceable rights benchmarks, and alignment with genocide-prevention duties, Resolution 2803 will replicate Oslo’s failures—external control without sovereignty. A genuine exit strategy requires sharing power and anchoring transition in law, not just security.
Cuba serves as Russia’s gateway for exporting IT and testing non‑Western payment systems in Latin America. Though trade is modest, Moscow sees Havana as a vital geopolitical symbol; its loss would discredit Russia’s multipolar ambitions and damage its strategic credibility.
Trump’s threats pressure Iran amid severe internal unrest. Possible US strikes could aim to undermine the regime or force nuclear concessions. Iran’s responses are constrained but may include attacking US bases, targeting Israel, or closing the Strait of Hormuz.
The lack of a coherent political opposition in Iran remains the central obstacle. The regime has systematically crushed dissent since 2009, leaving protesters without leadership. External military action risks uniting Iranians behind the flag or triggering civil war without ensuring democratic change.
The kingdom is leveraging great power competition to advance its interests, engaging the U.S., China, and Russia to fulfill different strategic needs. Saudi Arabia envisions a new global order where it is recognized as a partner, not a subordinate.
The Saudis effectively decoupled key deliverables—like chips and defense cooperation—from normalizing ties with Israel. MBS secured long-sought strategic gains, while the U.S. obtained a vague trillion-dollar investment soundbite and bolstered a defense partnership already complicated by regional politics.