If Trump strikes Iran, oil disruption scenarios range from reversible shipping interruptions to catastrophic facility destruction.

The New York Times critiques Trump’s war on Iran—after decades of vilifying the regime and cheerleading the Iraq invasion.

Israeli society is intoxicated by war and expansion, united behind a campaign that killed Khamenei and destabilized the region.

Iran faces three simultaneous regime changes: biological decay, an IRGC dictatorship, and a shattered social contract.

Israel is pushing for direct military talks with Lebanon, sidelining UNIFIL; Beirut firmly rejects the proposal.

Authoritarian regimes are not as strong as they appear; stability without institutions is a temporary postponement, not true power.

U.S. security aid to Iraq—$13.8 billion since 2015—is now suspended, forcing Baghdad to make an impossible choice.

Iran is no longer afraid of war; if attacked, it will drag the U.S. into a long, regional conflagration.

After the UAE’s withdrawal, Saudi Arabia is restructuring Yemen’s anti-Houthi forces, integrating former Emirati-backed groups under its command.

America’s strategic swamp: a quarter-century of believing stand-off strikes can solve complex political problems.