If Iran-Israel war erupts, Iraq could become a launch pad for militias and a target for retaliation; Kurdistan faces strikes and displacement.
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The agreement requires monthly renewals and expires in December 2025, reflecting deep political distrust. While providing short-term fiscal relief, its long-term viability is threatened by electoral politics, budget disputes, and the need for a new pipeline treaty with Turkey by 2026.
Having secured electoral victories and control over key state institutions, the PMF leverages its formal status to enrich itself and challenge rivals. Its campaign to expel U.S. forces risks an ISIS resurgence and could turn Iraq into an Iranian client state.