Syria’s offensive against Kurdish forces triggers a fragile deal, raising risks of ISIS resurgence and shifting regional power dynamics.
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A fragile Syrian ceasefire aims to integrate Kurdish areas but risks collapse over autonomy, threatening renewed ethnic conflict.
Turkey sees dual wins with the SDF’s disintegration and Israel’s non-intervention, strengthening Ankara’s influence as Syria’s Kurds lose autonomy and Damascus reasserts control.
The YPG’s downfall resulted from overestimating foreign backing and underestimating Damascus’s resolve. The government’s strategy of offering Kurdish rights isolated the militia, revealing its lack of popular support and the conditional nature of international patronage.
Riyadh employs a calculated, risk-averse strategy: using Kurdish relations as a geopolitical tool against rivals while prioritizing state stability. This reflects a core dilemma of balancing offensive opportunities against the defensive need to maintain regional status quos.
Washington’s repeated betrayals, whether of the Kurds who fought ISIS or of Taiwan in 1978, demonstrate that American alliances are no longer durable. This erodes trust and encourages global partners to seek alternatives, weakening U.S. influence long‑term.
Unresolved tensions risk an ISIS resurgence and a prolonged Kurdish insurgency. Concessions like Kurdish community police, recognizing cultural rights in the constitution, and granting SDF leaders official roles could build trust and integrate Kurds into a unified Syria.
“The northeast is the main arena where two strategic visions collide. One sees an interest in a Syria broken into manageable pieces; the other wagers on a top-down, centralized Syria. For the echoes of the northeast to become audible in the south, Damascus must prove it can consolidate its grip.”