Iraq’s nuclear deals with Russia and China, led by a militia-linked minister, raise proliferation risks and threaten U.S. relations.
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U.S. envoys should use the threat of military strikes to press Iran for nuclear, missile, and human rights concessions.
Iran relies on oil sales to China for nearly 90% of its export revenue, funding its nuclear and missile programs. The U.S. must crack down on the “Axis of Evasion,” using secondary sanctions and diplomatic pressure to cut off this financial lifeline.
If Fordow remains functional, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its nuclear ambitions, potentially leading to a breakout. If severely damaged, Tehran may negotiate under pressure. The facility’s true condition will determine if the conflict pauses or escalates anew.
The widest bargaining space may be Iran’s regional proxies, which are tools of influence rather than existential assets. However, Tehran views its missile arsenal as a vital shield and is unlikely to dismantle it, even under threat of war.
Key questions remain over Iran’s potential concessions, like handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Talks are seen as a short-term win for Tehran but will not resolve the regime’s economic, environmental, and political crises.
Despite setbacks, Iran remains a threat with enriched uranium and proxy networks. The U.S. strategy of disengagement risks being undermined by likely renewed conflict, leaving options to maintain a fragile status quo, outsource to Israel, or attempt a politically difficult new nuclear deal.
The analysis argues that diplomacy is the only reliable path to prevent another war. It proposes a three-point plan: solidifying the truce, negotiating limits on Iran’s nuclear program via a multinational consortium, and securing a U.S.-backed mutual non-aggression pledge between Israel and Iran.