Trump is being dragged into a war with Iran, much like Putin was into Ukraine: emboldened by a perceived victory and ignoring military warnings.
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The Trump-Xi rapprochement threatens to relegate Putin’s Russia to a secondary player; Beijing now has more to gain from the West.
Trump’s capture of Maduro shattered Moscow’s concept of “genuine sovereignty.” While Putin relies on military attrition, Trump utilizes shock operations and personal diplomacy to sideline rivals, forcing the Kremlin to witness its own disruptive strategies deployed effectively against its global allies.
Russia is arming Tehran with Spartak vehicles and Mi-28 helicopters to fight domestic insurgency. As Trump threatens military strikes, the Kremlin is studying Iran’s internet blackouts while positioning itself as a potential sanctuary for the fleeing clerical elite
Tehran is trading its strategic independence for Russian protection, securing a $25 billion nuclear agreement and Su-35 fighters. As UN sanctions return, Russian-led infrastructure projects now serve as “safe zones” intended to physically discourage further bombing of Iranian territory.
Europe’s trust in the U.S. has shifted from a reliability-based partnership to a necessity-based “diplomatic spectacle.” While Trumpism’s “divide-and-conquer” tactics undermine EU unity, the long-term survival of the European project depends less on American reassurances and more on whether Europeans can finally trust one another to lead.
Brookings experts warn that ousting Maduro is merely the start of a high-friction era. From potential NATO fractures over Greenland threats to emboldening Russia and China, the operation’s legal ambiguity and lack of a “day after” plan risk global instability and long-term debt crises.
While Tartus and Khmeimim remain active, Russia’s dispersed airbase network in Libya, including Maaten al-Sarra, is now more critical for power projection. These sites facilitate Africa Corps deployments and arms flows, complicating U.S.-led efforts to unify Libya and stabilize the Sahel region.