Israel’s strike on Qatar raises fears Turkey could be next, but Turkey’s military and energy leverage make it a far more dangerous target.
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Israeli calls to designate Qatar an “enemy state” over its Hamas ties are escalating, driven by political rivalry and post-October 7 anger.
A strike on Qatar shifted Gulf views of Israel from partner to threat, driving a new Saudi-UAE-Qatar security alliance.
The strike targeted Hamas negotiators in Doha, damaging Qatar’s mediation role. It exposes unequal U.S. security commitments, prioritizing Israel over Arab allies. This will likely push Gulf states to further diversify their security partnerships with China and Russia.
“Iraq will have to find a place for itself in the midst of regional geoeconomic and geopolitical rivalries, as competing trade connectivity projects are being put forward. These include China’s BRI, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, and Iran’s trade ambitions.”
Qatar leveraged the 2017 blockade by Saudi Arabia and the UAE to intensify lobbying, defend Al Udeid Air Base, secure arms sales, preserve its major non-NATO ally status, and strengthen military cooperation, successfully defeating congressional efforts that threatened U.S.–Qatar defense relations.
The order elevates Qatar’s status above all other Arab allies, offering a formal defense pledge likely aimed at rewarding its mediation role, deterring further Israeli attacks, and reassuring Gulf partners of U.S. commitment in a shifting security landscape.