“Until regional states acknowledge their limitations and negotiate a regional arrangement they can all tolerate, the Middle East will remain trapped in recurring tensions… Stability is possible if regional powers acknowledge their structural limitations and recognize their mutual constraints.”
Browsing: Saudi Arabia
India’s Gulf clout is evolving from diaspora-driven influence to a strategic defense and tech partnership. Despite the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact, India’s “Shared Strategic Autonomy” with the UAE—bolstered by a $200 billion trade target—positions it as a vital stabilizer against emerging China-backed axes.
Wang Yi’s Middle East tour prioritized messaging over concrete outcomes. While Beijing seeks to bolster its profile as a mediator and trade defender, stalled FTA negotiations and Gulf efforts to protect local industries from Chinese dumping reveal deep-seated economic challenges in the partnership.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE share economic ambitions and security concerns, yet rivalry over Yemen, personal dynamics between leaders, and competing regional strategies have fueled tensions. Resolving the dispute will fall to the Gulf states themselves, as outside mediation can only support, not substitute, their long-term cooperation.
U.S. policy should aim to contain and reverse China’s foothold in Saudi Arabia, particularly in sensitive tech and defense areas. This means demanding divestment from joint tech hubs, limiting advanced arms sales, and removing Chinese firms from critical telecommunications infrastructure.
Through Vision 2030, Riyadh is diversifying its economy and diplomacy, mediating deals with rivals via China and investing in Africa. This marks a strategic shift from reliance on a single great power to becoming an assertive, self-interested center of influence.