The struggle reflects broader proxy competition, as Riyadh aims to block arms smuggling to the Houthis and curb Emirati influence, while Muscat fears Salafi expansion. Local tensions are managed through tribal codes but risk escalating without direct Saudi-Omani dialogue.
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Riyadh’s strategy blends cooperation with Turkey against Iran, leveraging tribal networks in northeast Syria, and rallying Gulf diplomatic pressure against Israeli expansion. Success depends on Damascus’s ability to unify the country amid persistent external interference.
The move reduces ideological leverage in Muslim-majority countries while opening doors to Western and Asian economic ties. Riyadh must balance this strategic realignment to avoid creating a vacuum filled by rivals or radicalized former beneficiaries.
Washington must pressure regional patrons—especially the UAE—and include Sudanese civil society to forge a viable peace. Without addressing the proxy dimensions and local agency, diplomatic initiatives will fail to halt the humanitarian and strategic crisis.
Riyadh’s recalibration reflects a pragmatic calculation: championing Palestinian rights safeguards its regional legitimacy and leadership role against Iran, while keeping future normalization as leverage. This balances domestic opinion with long-term economic and security partnerships.
Riyadh employs a calculated, risk-averse strategy: using Kurdish relations as a geopolitical tool against rivals while prioritizing state stability. This reflects a core dilemma of balancing offensive opportunities against the defensive need to maintain regional status quos.