Iranian missiles can now reach Rome and Berlin, and Tehran has organized over 100 European terror plots since 1979. Europe can offer minesweepers, diplomatic leverage, and reconstruction aid for Iran. In return, Washington must restore weapons flows, sanctions, and intelligence-sharing for Ukraine. A transactional deal preserves NATO.
President Donald Trump has torn into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European leaders for allegedly abandoning America in its hour of need. The United States and Israel’s war against Iran is not playing well across Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has blamed the conflict for Germany’s economic troubles. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the United Kingdom will not take part in the US’s attempted blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. French President Emmanuel Macron has questioned the seriousness of Donald Trump’s stance on the war. Even Trump’s Italian ally, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has been reluctant to openly support the war, prompting accusations from Trump of Meloni lacking courage.
NATO is seemingly coming apart at the political seams even as the Russian aggression next door threatens Europe’s security and prosperity should Ukrainian defenders falter. Battered after four years of war, alliance-aspirant Ukraine needs continued support from a unified NATO to persevere. America’s self-created predicament stemming from the war with Iran is, thus, coming into sharp relief.
Amidst the noise there is a signal, if we concentrate and listen. The Make America Great Again (MAGA) faction in Washington needs Europe — and vice versa. The path forward will not be easy and must start with a clear definition of interests. But a deal is possible.
Europe’s Iran Problem
Iran is not just an American problem — it is a critical issue for Europe related to commerce and geography. Skyrocketing energy prices have hit Europeans harder because the continent is more reliant than the US on the transit of key commodities through the Strait of Hormuz. This is why Meloni, though ostensibly among the most Trump-friendly of European leaders, started early in raising the alarm over the war-induced slowdown of oil, natural gas, and fertilizer imports that fuel the European economy. Europe is even more dependent on trade through the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, where the Iran-backed Houthis have, over the past decade, repeatedly shown the ability to disrupt maritime traffic.
Proximity to Iran means particular vulnerability. In the first days of the war, Iranian missile and drone attacks targeted NATO member Turkey and European Union member Cyprus. NATO’s missile defense system, built very much on the back of US capabilities deployed to the region, has kept Europeans safe — for now. In March Iran fired missiles toward the joint UK-US military base on the island of Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean. That is a range of 2,500 miles, demonstrating that Iranian ballistic missiles are now capable of reaching Rome and Berlin.
Apart from ballistic missiles — the Iranians apparently still have ample supply — acts of terror remain an option for Iran. Since 1979, the Islamic Republic’s regime has organized over 100 terrorist plots in Europe, with more than half of them occurring since 2021. After the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an airstrike on February 28, Iran issued a fatwa calling for a holy war of revenge on the West, leading authorities in Berlin to warn of Tehran-linked sleeper cells across Germany.
Europeans need to step up and address issues related to their own security. Appeasement will not work if Iran is a threat to Europe, too. Distaste for the manner and methods of the US president cannot be allowed to blur self-interest.
How Europe Can Help on Iran
Rhetoric notwithstanding, Europe is, in fact, already assisting US efforts on Iran. Without the existing basing agreements on the continent, Operation Epic Fury would be much more difficult and expensive to execute. With the exception of Spain, European governments have granted the US military territorial and overflight rights to access locally based rapid deployment facilities, logistics, refueling, surveillance, and satellite gear. Ramstein Air Base in Germany has been central to America’s war against the Iranian regime. At a minimum, Europe should commit to continued access and offer to share costs in the event the US resumes military strikes; but passive involvement is insufficient.
Germany’s minister of defense has questioned what “a handful” of European frigates can bring to the Strait of Hormuz that the powerful US Navy cannot. Of course, European naval power alone will not reopen this strategic chokepoint. But Europeans can contribute with minesweepers, which are sorely lacking in the US inventory. Since 2024, the EU has deployed member state assets in the Red Sea to ensure freedom of navigation against Houthi attacks. Last month, the union’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, proposed expanding the mandate of the Aspides maritime security mission in the Red Sea to the Strait of Hormuz. The unanimity this would require has been lacking among the EU’s 27 member states, but the missing political will could perhaps be mustered with the right incentives.
Beyond military means, Europe possesses powerful diplomatic and economic tools, which could help facilitate negotiations to end the war or address its aftermath. As one of the world’s top energy importers, Europe should consider dangling the prospect of greater future market access as a carrot to encourage Iran to agree to a durable peace deal. As an opposite tack, Brussels can also increase pressure on Tehran by imposing additional sanctions or freezing Iranian assets. Nor is Europe’s economic weight limited to influencing Iranian actions. The EU and the US maintain the world’s largest bilateral trade and investment relationship, totaling over 40% of global gross domestic product (GDP) — constituting enormous leverage with Washington and creating a strong argument for Europe’s involvement in crafting a workable diplomatic solution.
In a little over a month, the United States and Israel have struck more than 13,000 Iranian targets. Whatever the eventual settlement entails, it will require both economic and political reconstruction. The European Union — the world’s largest donor, with unique tools to build state capacity, improve governance, and strengthen rule of law — will have an invaluable role to play in shaping an Iran that is no longer hostile to the West and can deliver for its people. That is a strategic objective of compelling transatlantic interest.
American Interest in a Free Ukraine
But if Europe is to overcome its aversion to getting involved in a war in the Middle East, the US will have to reaffirm its commitment to helping the Europeans with Ukraine. On this point, Washington needs a clear eye. American support for Ukraine was never about charity; checking Russian aggression in Europe’s East is a core American interest.
Even today, the US understands that transatlantic security can only be maintained by preventing Russian revanchism and imperial conquest from overrunning the European continent. A Europe weak, divided, dependent on Russia, and split from the United States is a long-held Kremlin dream — President Vladimir Putin persists in pursuing it.
America helped win the Cold War. This is no time to lose the peace. Without US assistance, Ukraine will be absorbed into the Russian sphere of influence, but that is not the only threat. The Russian appetite for aggression will be fed by appeasement, and other parts of Europe could soon end up on Moscow’s chopping block. Russia, seeing the Gulf as a second front to distract from Ukraine and deplete American stockpiles, is reportedly providing Iran with intelligence that enables it to target American soldiers. And as noted above, war with Iran is virtually certain to spawn new acts of terrorism — a problem for the Middle East as well as for both sides of the Atlantic.
Any transatlantic grand deal involving the Iran war will, therefore, rest on a division of labor, but with a shared strategic horizon.
By no means should America and Europe overlook China in consideration of these issues. From Bahrain to Brussels, Beijing continues to advance the narrative that China is a stable, predictable, pragmatic power ready to do business. Europe risks stepping into that trap. Some across the continent already favor closer ties to Beijing to hedge against Russian brazenness and American impulsivity.
The China factor here is equally sensitive from Washington’s side. The summit between Trump and President Xi Jinping has been postponed by the war from March to mid-May, and the trading relationship between the world’s two top economies is rife with difficulties. Moreover, the Chinese are apparently ready to ship new, shoulder-fired missile-defense systems to the regime in Iran and have continued to import sanctioned Iranian oil via its shadow fleet.
It is not too late to shape a new international order that revives the idea of the West’s centrality in competition with the authoritarian Eurasian powers. This is a transactional moment. It transcends high-minded principles. Iran, Russia — and China — are calling out with opportunity.
What the US Must Do for Ukraine
Washington’s side of this transatlantic quid pro quo requires refocusing on supporting Ukraine’s ability to beat back Russia’s invasion. Many policy about-turns over the past year will need to be reversed. The US temporarily lifted part of the sanctions against Russian oil exports amid war-driven price spikes — a move that alarmed Europe, which has made painful yet successful strides toward energy independence from Russia. Since Russia finances its war machine almost entirely through fuel exports, reinstating and tightening those sanctions, and enforcing secondary sanctions on Russia’s principal clients India and China, would make a tremendous difference.
American weapons must also start flowing back to Ukraine in higher volumes — though the heavy depletion of US weapons stockpiles as part of Operation Epic Fury will make this a thorny political issue. Europeans have been ramping up defense spending and are footing virtually the entire Ukraine aid bill in 2026. But they lack the production capacity to compete with a Russia devoting 50% of public spending to its military. Washington should, therefore, encourage American industry to accelerate the production of interceptor missiles, air-defense systems, and artillery ammunition to not only meet US demands but also the urgent need in Ukraine.
At the diplomatic level, the Trump administration has repositioned the United States as a neutral mediator between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, rather than an unambiguous treaty ally of Europe and a strategic supporter of Ukraine. This must end. It is squarely in the American interest to help European allies deter Russian aggression. The entire continent now confronts the full spectrum of Russian hybrid warfare, including drone attacks, sabotage, and election interference. Firmly re-aligning Washington with Brussels would send a clear message to Moscow and reduce the risk of conventional conflict on NATO’s eastern flank.
Additional steps Washington must consider — and Europe should negotiate for — include pressuring Moscow to accept and adhere to a cease-fire, delivering Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and authorizing Kyiv to carry out long-range strikes using US-sourced missiles, restoring full intelligence sharing with Ukraine, and providing it with additional air-defense systems. Unified — and sustained — transatlantic pressure on Russia would finally give Ukraine a fair chance to win.
Is Any of this Realistic?
It would be an understatement to say none of this will be easy. Trump’s disparagement of European allies, name-calling, accusations, and attacks on NATO are toxic. The erratic imposition of tariffs and threats to take Greenland by force shocked even the Trump-inclined across the continent. The US president’s plummeting popularity in Europe has put European leaders in an excruciating political bind. Yet a case for action must be made, and deals must be sealed.
Neutralizing the threats emanating from Iran is a European security interest, and there is no saving Ukraine — or preserving European security — without the Americans. European governments expressed legitimate concerns about the US-Israeli attack on Iran contravening international law. But now that the war is ongoing — the two-week cease-fire notwithstanding — and the crisis continues to harm Europe, the continent must act. After all, NATO’s intervention in Kosovo in the 1990s was also sharply criticized for violating the United Nations Charter, given the lack of an enabling UN Security Council resolution, but European allies nonetheless supported it because they saw the operation as critical to Europe’s safety and stability.
Trump has never been one for selfless reciprocity. The impetus for a transatlantic bargain should not be expected to come from Washington, but Europeans have agency. The opportunity to define shared interests and take bold action is before them. It is time for Europe to set an agenda that preserves the North Atlantic Alliance. With Washington currently predisposed toward ruthless pragmatism but also looking for help on Iran, Europe should think big and take the initiative. The stakes could not be higher.