نقش چین در خاورمیانه بدون توافق‌های جدید گسترش می‌یابد

تکامل هنر دولت‌داری در کریدورهای انرژی عمده، انتقالی از تجارت اقتصادی خالص به سمت هماهنگی امنیتی محاسبه‌شده بدون پیمان‌های دفاعی رسمی را نشان می‌دهد. با افزایش استقرارهای نظامی دوربرد، تمرینات مشترک هوایی و انتقالات دفاع غیرمستقیم، نقش چین در خاورمیانه استراتژی‌ای را به تصویر می‌کشد که بر نرمال‌سازی امنیت به جای ساخت بلوک‌های سنتی متمرکز است. به جای تکرار ساختارهای گارد غربی یا به دست آوردن شبکه‌های وسیع پایگاه، پکن نفوذ خود را از طریق ادغام عملیاتی هدفمند، حمایت ناوبری ماهواره‌ای و شراکت‌های دوجانبه کلیدی با تأمین‌کنندگان ثالث مانند پاکستان به نمایش می‌گذارد.

این رویکرد کم‌فشار به قدرت‌های غیرمنطقه‌ای اجازه می‌دهد تا مسیرهای دریایی استراتژیک و سرمایه‌گذاری‌های تجاری را محافظت کنند در حالی که از درگیری‌های مستقیم در منازعات منطقه‌ای اجتناب می‌کنند. با این حال، حفظ شراکت‌های استراتژیک جامع در میان بازیگران رقیب منطقه‌ای، تناقضات ژئوپلیتیکی واضحی را به ویژه در زمان خصومت‌های نظامی فعال به همراه دارد. در نهایت، نقش چین در خاورمیانه به مشارکت انتخابی و همکاری امنیتی معاملاتی متکی است که به منظور عایق‌سازی جریان‌های تجاری از اختلالات سیستماتیک منطقه‌ای طراحی شده و در عین حال مرزهای استراتژیک رقابتی با واشنگتن را به دقت مدیریت می‌کند.

تمرینات نظامی نقش چین در خاورمیانه را بازتعریف می‌کند

واضح‌ترین مثال، تمرینات نظامی اخیر “عقاب‌های تمدن ۲۰۲۶” با مصر است. این تمرینات قابلیت‌هایی را نشان داد که فراتر از دیپلماسی نظامی نمادین بود. چین جنگنده‌های J-16، یک تانکر هوایی YY-20A، یک هواپیمای هشدار زودهنگام KJ-500، یک هواپیمای جنگ الکترونیک و سایر دارایی‌های پشتیبانی را به مصر اعزام کرد.

برای اولین بار، formations جنگنده‌های چینی بیش از ۶۰۰۰ کیلومتر فراتر از آسیا پرواز کردند تا به مصر برسند، با سوخت‌گیری هوایی در مسیر. پیش از این استقرار، چین تنها J-16 را به شرق دور روسیه و پاکستان ارسال کرده بود. در سال گذشته، تمرینات چین و مصر شامل جنگنده‌های کوچکتر J-10C و هواپیماهای پشتیبانی بود.

از آن زمان، خلبانان چینی و مصری تمرینات نبرد هوایی در برد متوسط و نزدیک را با استفاده از J-16های چینی و رافال‌های مصری انجام داده‌اند.

در حالی که این استقرار نشان نمی‌دهد که پکن قصد دارد در خاورمیانه جنگی راه بیندازد، اما توانایی ارتش آزادی‌بخش مردم را برای همکاری با نیروهای نظامی منطقه‌ای و حفظ نیروها در فاصله‌ای دور از چین، فراتر از همسایگی نزدیک خود، به نمایش می‌گذارد.

محافظت‌های دریایی قدرت را در آب‌های خلیج به نمایش می‌گذارد

چین همچنین حضور نظامی خود را در منطقه وسیع‌تر دریا حفظ کرده است. از سال 2008، این کشور عملیات‌های اسکورت دریایی را در خلیج عدن و آب‌های سواحل سومالی انجام داده است. به تازگی در ماه اوت، نیروی اسکورت 49 این کشور به منطقه اعزام شد. به‌طور رسمی، این مأموریت بر حفاظت از حمل و نقل بین‌المللی و انجام عملیات ضد دزدی دریایی متمرکز است.

پکن همچنین درگیر شدن نظامی خود را از طریق تمرینات مشترک گسترش داده است. در سال 2025، این کشور تمرینات دریایی را با ایران و روسیه در خلیج عمان برگزار کرد. در ماه اوت گذشته، این کشور چهارمین تمرین آموزشی نیروی هوایی با نام «سپر شاهین» را با امارات متحده عربی انجام داد.

این استقرارها به‌طور فزاینده‌ای شامل پلتفرم‌های پیشرفته‌تری شده است، از جمله جنگنده‌های J-10، هواپیماهای هشدار زودهنگام KJ-500 و تانکرهای هوایی YY-20A.

پاکستان فروش تجهیزات دفاعی غیرمستقیم را تسریع می‌کند

چین همچنین به‌طور فزاینده‌ای به یک بازیگر مهم، هرچند غیرمستقیم، در امنیت خاورمیانه تبدیل می‌شود. این در حالی است که شریک نزدیک آن، پاکستان، روابط دفاعی خود را از طریق توافق‌نامه دفاع متقابل استراتژیک (SMDA) با عربستان سعودی، پیمان مکه که شامل ترکیه و عربستان سعودی است، و یک توافق دفاعی که به تازگی تأیید شده با کویت، گسترش می‌دهد.

با عمیق‌تر شدن این شراکت‌ها در اسلام‌آباد، تجهیزات نظامی ساخت چین احتمالاً نقش فزاینده‌ای در معماری‌های امنیتی منطقه ایفا خواهد کرد. پاکستان به شدت به فناوری دفاعی چین وابسته است و به‌تازگی سیستم‌های دفاع هوایی HQ-9 و جنگنده‌های JF-17 را که به‌طور مشترک با چین تولید می‌کند، به عربستان سعودی مستقر کرده است.

برای پکن، چنین تحولات فرصتی را برای نمایش صنعت دفاعی خود بدون پذیرش نقش رسمی امنیتی در منطقه فراهم می‌کند.

در عوض، فناوری نظامی چین می‌تواند به‌طور غیرمستقیم از طریق استقرارهای پاکستانی گسترش یابد، در حالی که سیستم‌هایی مانند شبکه ماهواره‌ای بیدو، که در حال حاضر در بخش‌هایی از جهان عرب استفاده می‌شود، به ادغام پلتفرم‌های ساخت چین در شبکه‌های امنیتی منطقه‌ای کمک می‌کند.

رئیس‌جمهور چین، شی جین‌پینگ، در سال 2022 با ولیعهد عربستان سعودی، محمد بن سلمان، در ریاض دیدار می‌کند. پکن به‌طور فزاینده‌ای در حال گسترش نفوذ خود در امنیت خلیج از طریق شراکت‌های منطقه‌ای و همکاری‌های دفاعی است. [Getty]

آیا سیاست‌های آمریکایی استراتژی پکن را محدود خواهد کرد

تئودور کاراسیک، پژوهشگر امور خاورمیانه در بنیاد جیمزتاون، در مورد چشم‌انداز نقش امنیتی بزرگ‌تر چین در خاورمیانه به روزنامه نیو عرب گفت که فناوری و پهپادهای چینی در حال حاضر به‌طور عمیق در سراسر این منطقه جا افتاده‌اند و او انتظار دارد که این روند ادامه یابد.

کاراسیک استدلال کرد که پکن از تنش‌های آمریکا و ایران بهره‌برداری کرده و در عین حال آنچه را که او “وضعیت نسبی راحتی” توصیف کرد، حفظ کرده است. از طریق پروژه‌های زیرساختی، سرمایه‌گذاری‌های تجاری و فروش‌های رو به رشد تسلیحات، چین به‌طور پیوسته دامنه نفوذ خود را در منطقه گسترش داده است. او اشاره کرد که مشارکت پکن اکنون به همکاری‌های دفاعی نیز گسترش یافته است، از جمله حمایت از برنامه موشکی بالستیک عربستان سعودی.

او همچنین استدلال کرد که تمرکز استراتژیک طولانی‌مدت آمریکا در جاهای دیگر، فرصت‌هایی برای چین ایجاد کرده تا در خاورمیانه درگیرتر شود. او گفت که این تحولات به همراه پلتفرم‌هایی مانند بریکس و سازمان همکاری شانگهای (SCO) به یک نظم جهانی به‌طور فزاینده‌ای تکه‌تکه اشاره دارد.

با این حال، کاراسیک پیشنهاد کرد که مسیر آینده نقش منطقه‌ای چین ممکن است به‌طور عمده به واکنش واشنگتن بستگی داشته باشد. تلاش‌های تازه آمریکا برای جلوگیری از عمیق‌تر شدن روابط شرکای خود با پکن می‌تواند آرزوهای چین را محدود کند، حتی در حالی که سیاستمداران آمریکایی همچنان بر چالش‌های سیاسی داخلی و جنگ با ایران تمرکز دارند.

در حالی که دولت ترامپ ممکن است بخواهد فشار اقتصادی بر چین را افزایش دهد، کاراسیک questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned questioned 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زیشان شاه، تحلیل‌گر در FINRA در واشنگتن، به روزنامه نیو عرب گفت که چین از زمان آغاز جنگ آمریکا و ایران رویکردی ظریف‌تر اتخاذ کرده است. با این حال، او استدلال کرد که “صرف‌نظر از بیانیه‌های رسمی چین درباره تأمین آبراه‌های بین‌المللی یا تمرینات نظامی اخیر با مصر”، پکن به احتمال زیاد به سمت شکل قوی‌تری از مشارکت حرکت نخواهد کرد.

به نظر او، چین عمدتاً رقابت با ایالات متحده را از منظر اقتصادی می‌بیند. در حالی که تهدید تحریم‌های ایالات متحده پکن را آزار داده است، چین به طور تاریخی از اعمال تحریم‌های دیگر علیه ایران خودداری کرده است.

شاه همچنین اشاره کرد که با وجود حفظ روابط تجاری قوی با اسرائیل، چین به طور کلی از استفاده از آن رابطه برای تأثیرگذاری بر سیاست اسرائیل خودداری کرده است. او استدلال کرد که آیا پکن در آینده تصمیم به بهره‌برداری فعال‌تر از این روابط خواهد گرفت، همچنان یک سوال باز است.

متعادل‌سازی بی‌طرفی دیپلماتیک در برابر صادرات دفاعی

موضع چین در طول جنگ ایران به وضوح فرصت‌ها و تناقضات در نقش در حال ظهور آن در منطقه را نشان داده است. پکن خود را به عنوان ذینفعی در کاهش تنش‌ها معرفی کرده است، به ویژه در حالی که این درگیری امنیت خلیج فارس و جریان آزاد انرژی را تهدید کرده است.

وزیر امور خارجه چین وانگ یی و وزیر امور خارجه ایران عباس عراقچی در حین یک نشست دیپلماتیک. چین در حال پیگیری نقشی بزرگ‌تر در منطقه است در حالی که روابط خود با ایران را متعادل می‌کند. [Getty]

در تاریخ ۲۴ اوت، وزیر امور خارجه وانگ یی به وزیر امور خارجه کویت گفت که خاورمیانه و خلیج به “نقطه عطفی بحرانی” رسیده‌اند و خواستار بازگشت به گفت‌وگو شد و گفت که چین آماده است تا هماهنگی با کویت را تقویت کرده و به صلح و ثبات منطقه‌ای کمک کند. چین همچنین به طور مستقیم با بازیگران و میانجی‌های منطقه‌ای درگیر شده است زیرا به دنبال حفاظت از منافع اقتصادی خود و جلوگیری از اختلال در تجارت و تأمین انرژی است.

اما موضع پکن به دلیل نقش ادعایی آن در حفظ توانمندی‌های نظامی ایران پیچیده است. مقامات آمریکایی و گزارش‌های اخیر شرکت‌ها و واسطه‌های چینی را به عنوان تأمین‌کنندگان تجهیزات و قطعات نظامی برای ایران شناسایی کرده‌اند، از جمله یک قرارداد گزارش شده برای صدها موشک دفاع هوایی قابل حمل QW-12 و FN-16 ساخت چین در طول این درگیری.

صنعت‌گری چینی همچنین در اکوسیستم وسیع‌تر پهپادهای ایران مرکزی بوده است، به‌طوری‌که شرکت‌ها و تأمین‌کنندگان چینی اجزای مورد استفاده در سیستم‌های ایرانی را فراهم می‌کنند. در عین حال، واشنگتن به‌طور فزاینده‌ای به هدف قرار دادن نهادهای مرتبط با چین به‌دلیل حمایت از بخش‌های موشکی، پهپادی و نفتی ایران پرداخته است.

به عبارت دیگر، پکن می‌تواند در صورت تمایل نقش منطقه‌ای بزرگ‌تری را بر عهده بگیرد.

رد اتحادهای ابرقدرت‌ها به‌منظور تعامل محدود

برای درک واضح‌تر از نیت‌های چین و محدودیت‌هایی که بر جاه‌طلبی‌های منطقه‌ای خود می‌گذارد، نشریه The New Arab با لی چائو، معاون سردبیر گروه رسانه‌ای چین (CMG) در خاورمیانه گفت‌وگو کرد.

به نظر او، هرچند نقش چین در امور امنیتی خاورمیانه در حال گسترش است، پکن هیچ تمایلی به چالش‌کشیدن یا تکرار مدل آمریکایی یا تبدیل شدن به “پلیس” جدید منطقه ندارد.

چائو این تغییر را به‌عنوان حرکتی به‌سوی تمرکز کمتر بر تعامل اقتصادی و دیپلماتیک توصیف کرد و گفت چین در حال پیگیری “شکل گسترده‌تر، یکپارچه‌تر، اما همچنان محدود از مشارکت امنیتی” است. او استدلال کرد که این امر به‌دلیل منافع عملی مانند انرژی، تجارت، سرمایه‌گذاری و حضور پرسنل چینی در خاورمیانه، “به‌طور فزاینده‌ای دشوار شده است که مدل قدیمی تعامل عمیق اقتصادی اما مشارکت محدود امنیتی را حفظ کرد”.

با این حال، چائو تأکید کرد که پکن به‌دنبال اتحادهای نظامی یا استقرارهای دائمی در مقیاس بزرگ نیست. در عوض، این کشور در حال گسترش حضور امنیتی خود از طریق ابزارهای کم‌فشار است که یک “چارچوب تقویت‌کننده متقابل” را تشکیل می‌دهد، که هدف آن جایگزینی ایالات متحده نیست بلکه کاهش خطراتی است که بی‌ثباتی منطقه‌ای برای منافع چینی به همراه دارد.

او استدلال کرد که استراتژی چین در خاورمیانه بر نرمال‌سازی تعامل امنیتی به‌جای نظامی‌سازی متمرکز است. در عین حال، چائو به محدودیت‌های این رویکرد اذعان کرد و خاطرنشان کرد که چین شبکه نظامی گسترده‌ای مشابه ایالات متحده ندارد.

در نتیجه، چائو گفت که پکن احتمالاً “مدل تعهد محدود، مشارکت انتخابی و اجتناب از اتحادهای رسمی” را دنبال خواهد کرد. او استدلال کرد که نقش چین تنها زمانی وارد مرحله‌ای معنادار‌تر خواهد شد که این کشور در مکانیزم‌های امنیتی چندجانبه یا همکاری امنیتی نهادینه‌شده در سراسر منطقه مشارکت کند.

تا آن زمان، احتمالاً ردپای امنیتی در حال گسترش چین محتاط، انتخابی و عمدتاً تحت تأثیر منافع اقتصادی‌اش باقی خواهد ماند.