Friction between Turkey and Israel has escalated over territorial and security disputes in Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean. While historic ties and diplomatic rescue efforts exist, competing stances on Palestinian statehood and border sovereignty create high strategic risk.
Ankara and Tel Aviv are staring down a dangerous geopolitical abyss as regional friction threatens to spark direct armed conflict. While Washington attempts to manage the immediate fallout, the historic collapse of Turkey-Israel relations has fundamentally altered the security architecture of the Eastern Mediterranean. Decades of intelligence sharing and economic ties are now eclipsed by sharp ideological divides over Gaza and Syrian border security, proving that Turkey-Israel relations have reached a dangerous point of no return.
Turkey-Israel relations face critical strain
Tensions between regional heavyweights Turkey and Israel are such that some fear it could escalate into armed conflict, with Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean among the most likely theatres for such a scenario. Both sides see each other as a threat, but have so far avoided direct attacks, in part thanks to the mediating force of US President Donald Trump, who enjoys close relations with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump’s recent visit to Ankara for the NATO Summit and his public friendliness towards Erdoğan and Turkey has unsettled Israel. In an interview with CNN ahead of the summit, Netanyahu described the Turkish government as a “Muslim Brotherhood-infected anti-Israel entity” and called on Trump not to upset the military balance of power in the region by selling Ankara F-35 fighter jets. Netanyahu’s office said he raised “the statements made by President Erdoğan and his people against the existence of Israel” in a phonecall with Trump on 9 July.
The root cause of the tension between Turkey and Israel is Palestine, Gaza, and Hamas. Turkey, which was the first Muslim-majority country to recognise the State of Israel, has long called for a State of Palestine. Erdoğan sees Hamas as a resistance group fighting against Israel’s occupation, and for an independent state, whereas Israel accuses Turkey of being a main sponsor of Hamas, which it regards as a terrorist organisation and an existential threat.
Reshaping Turkey-Israel relations today
An area of contention is Syria, with which both Turkey and Israel share a border (Israel to the south, Turkey to the north). In Syria, which has little by way of military hardware, both Ankara and Tel Aviv are trying to keep each other at bay. Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen said in an interview last week that Israel will have to make sure Turkey does not establish itself militarily in Syria. Turkey denies that its presence in Syria is a threat to Israel and criticises the Netanyahu government for not respecting Syrian sovereignty by disrupting efforts to rebuild the country.
Israel’s strategy of signing security agreements and forming alliances with Greece and Greek Cypriots, and its associated activities in the eastern Mediterranean, are seen by Turkey as part of an encirclement policy. Recently, the Greek and Israeli armed forces held joint exercises in the Aegean Sea. In Washington, Israeli and Greek lobbyists are urging US lawmakers not to offer advanced hardware to Turkey, amidst reports that Israel is supporting armed Kurdish group near the Turkish border.
November is election season in the US and Israel, and both Trump and Netanyahu are worried about losses. Although Trump will have another two years, Republican control of Congress and the Senate could diminish if the Democrats perform well, while in Israel, Netanyahu could be kicked out of power, in the country’s first ballot since the attacks of 7 October 2023 took Israel’s armed forces by surprise on Netayanhu’s watch.
Geopolitics fracture Turkey-Israel relations
Since then, Israeli forces have attacked Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran, while tightening control of the West Bank, but judging by the rhetoric from Israeli politicians, Israel’s ‘new enemy’ is Turkey, or ‘the new Iran’ as some call it. Yet Turkey is a NATO member, a US ally, and has a strong military. It therefore seems more plausible in the short-term that Netanyahu portrays Turkey as a conceptual threat, rather than an adversary with which to go to war. In such cases, accidental contact is always a risk.
There no historical enmity between Turkey and Israel, and there are many stories that bring Turks and Jews close. While Turks are not antisemitic, they see the current Israeli government and its followers as religious extremists with an expansionist agenda, seizing the territory of neighbouring states in-line with the broader aim of creating a ‘Greater Israel,’ as promised in the Torah.
Although many Turks object to the actions of the Israeli government, it would be a mistake to infer from this that they hate Jews, or that they want to annihilate Israel. Rather, it shows that they support a Palestinian state, and object to the injustices suffered by the Palestinian people. Antisemitism has been seen throughout European history, but has never been a part of Turkish culture. On the contrary, there is a long history of Turkish-Jewish coexistence and support.
Turkey-Israel relations undergo severe testing
For example, in 1492, the Ottoman Sultan sent ships to collect persecuted Sephardic Jews who had been expelled from Spain, bringing them under his protection. During the Second World War, Turkish diplomats in Europe rescued thousands of Jews from the Nazis. In 1949, Turkey recognised the State of Israel, long before any Arab state did so. In the 1990s, Israeli airforce pilots trained in the skies of Anatolia, whilst around 800,000 Israeli tourists visited Turkey annually for their holidays.
Since the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, there have been several diplomatic rows, but throughout much of this period it was ‘business as usual,’ with mutual official visits and cooperation. Erdoğan even received the Courage to Care Award given to those who risked their lives to save Jews during the Holocaust from the New York-based Anti-Defamation League.
Relations deteriorated significantly in 2010 when Israeli commandos raided a ship, the Mavi Marmara, in international waters on its way to challenge the blockade of Gaza, killing several Turkish activists. In September 2023, as a result of US mediation, Erdoğan and Netanyahu met at the UN General Assembly in New York, but a month later relations nosedived once again, as Israel launched the large-scale military operation in Gaza, killing tens of thousands of civilians.
Can Turkey-Israel relations pivot tomorrow
Ever since, the rhetoric has been fiery. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently said that Israel “has become a burden that humanity can no longer bear”. Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said this was a call for genocide. Elsewhere, the Turkish interior minister said his dream was to serve as Governor of Jerusalem even for a day, “in those lands which will be ours, just as it was in the past”. Israeli officials were quick to pick on this immature and unstatesmanlike comment, saying it was proof that the Turks wanted to wipe Israel from the map.
Both countries have recalled their ambassadors, and there are currently no direct diplomatic contacts, but intelligence officials are believed to remain in touch. Optimists say the tension is largely circumstantial, that both Erdoğan and Netanyahu are pragmatic when they need to be, and that both countries know they stand to gain much more from cooperation than from conflict, such as on trade and energy routes.
Fidan’s most recent statement that “there are still sane and good people with strategic minds in Israel” has been interpreted as a message of willingness to rebuild bridges, provided that the present mindset is replaced by a moderate and constructive one in Israel. Should Israel not give up on the two-state solution and pursuit of peace by negotiation (not by occupation and destruction), it would have a hugely positive impact on Turkish-Israeli relations, and help restore Israel’s standing in the world.