Six strategic risks: coalition divergence, rattled alliances, rival opportunism, expanding conflict, economic shock, unpopularity.
Browsing: Strategy
Israel’s forever wars: strategy shifted from deterrence to dominance/degradation. War now the arrangement itself.
The oil logic behind Trump’s war: Kharg Island strike spared infrastructure—keep oil moving.
How America’s war on Iran backfired: Khamenei’s martyrdom gift to regime, no good ending.
Turkey’s red lines: missile strike, ally pressure, Kurdish insurgency could trigger response. Erdogan hedges.
Warden’s Five Ring Theory: Operation Epic Fury targets leadership, infrastructure for strategic paralysis. Iran counters asymmetrically.
Toward a theory of victory: focus on IRGC as center of gravity. Need political warfare, defection pathways.
War meant to save Israel may destroy it: strategic assumptions crumbling, US dominance wanes. History’s patience thin.
Survival as strategy: Iran’s institutions, IRGC ensure continuity. Asymmetric defense globalizes costs. Persistence prevails.
Trump can’t spin his way out: no strategy for regime change, nuclear materials, oil shock. War not amenable to spin.