يجب إعطاء فرصة لمحادثات لبنان-إسرائيل

من غير المحتمل أن تنجح المحادثات المباشرة النادرة على المدى الطويل دون نزع سلاح حزب الله، لكنها تمثل فرصة مرحب بها للدولة اللبنانية لاستعادة سلطتها في السياسة الخارجية والسعي نحو تدابير بناء الثقة مع إسرائيل.

استضافت الولايات المتحدة محادثات مباشرة بين لبنان وإسرائيل في واشنطن هذا الأسبوع في ظل الضغوط المستمرة التي تستهدف حزب الله في لبنان.

اجتمع سفراء لبنان وإسرائيل لدى الولايات المتحدة، إلى جانب السفير الأمريكي في لبنان، في واشنطن يوم الثلاثاء. ترأس الاجتماع وزير الخارجية الأمريكي ماركو روبيو، الذي أشاد به باعتباره “تجمعًا تاريخيًا نأمل أن نبني عليه”.

قالت وزارة الخارجية إن الطرفين اتفقا على “بدء مفاوضات مباشرة في وقت ومكان متفق عليهما”.

بينما لا تزال هناك عقبات كبيرة، وأهمها قضية نزع سلاح حزب الله، ينبغي الترحيب بهذه المحادثات باعتبارها تدبيرًا أوليًا مهمًا لبناء الثقة يمهد الطريق لمفاوضات مستقبلية ضرورية. ومن المهم أن هذا يعيد تأكيد استقلال الدولة اللبنانية وسلطتها في السياسة الخارجية.

طاقم جديد، نفس الحبكة؟

تستعيد المحادثات ذكريات عندما اجتمعت الجانبان مباشرة ووقعتا اتفاقًا قصير الأمد خلال الحرب الأهلية اللبنانية من 1975 إلى 1990.

في عام 1983، بعد عام من غزو إسرائيل للبنان بهدف طرد المسلحين الفلسطينيين، دخل الرئيس اللبناني أمين الجميل في مفاوضات مع إسرائيل. في 17 مايو من ذلك العام، توصل الطرفان إلى اتفاق أنهى لفترة قصيرة حالة الحرب بين البلدين.

ومع ذلك، لم يستمر الاتفاق طويلاً بسبب معارضة الرئيس السوري حافظ الأسد والفصائل المؤيدة لسوريا في لبنان.

اليوم، لم يعد هناك تهديد لإسرائيل من المسلحين الفلسطينيين في لبنان. كما أن نظام الأسد قد انتهى. لكن حزب الله لا يزال يمثل تحديًا أمنيًا كبيرًا لإسرائيل. وذلك على الرغم من أن المجموعة قد ضعفت بشكل كبير على مدار العامين الماضيين بسبب قيام إسرائيل بقطع رأس قيادتها، واختراق صفوفها، وتقليل الكثير من قدرتها العسكرية.

لكن إسرائيل لا تستطيع ببساطة طرد حزب الله – وهو حزب لبناني يضم مقاتلين لبنانيين، ونوابًا، ووزراء، ومؤيدين – من لبنان كما فعلت مع منظمة التحرير الفلسطينية في الثمانينيات. ولا يمكنها نزع سلاح حزب الله دون إطلاق غزو بري عميق ومكلف، مع عواقب وخيمة على لبنان.

بدلاً من ذلك، تقول إسرائيل إنها تحاول إنشاء منطقة عازلة في جنوب لبنان – كما فعلت من 1985 إلى 2000 – لدفع حزب الله بعيدًا عن الحدود وتقليل تهديد الهجمات الصاروخية أو التسلل البري. وقد استأنف حزب الله هجمات الطائرات المسيرة والصواريخ ضد إسرائيل بعد الحرب الأمريكية الإسرائيلية على إيران، الراعي الرئيسي للمجموعة.

لقد أدت هذه الضربات الإسرائيلية وأوامر الإخلاء إلى خلق وضع إنساني كارثي في جنوب لبنان. فقد تم إخلاء أكثر من 80 بلدة وقرية، وتشرّد أكثر من 15 في المئة من سكان لبنان.

في الأسبوع الماضي، قصفت إسرائيل أكثر من 100 هدف في جميع أنحاء البلاد في 10 دقائق، مما أسفر عن مقتل المئات. جاءت موجة الضربات هذه على الرغم من وقف إطلاق النار بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران، الذي قالت طهران وإسلام آباد إنه يشمل لبنان (وهو ادعاء رفضته الولايات المتحدة).

معارضة حزب الله

دعا الرئيس اللبناني جوزيف عون إلى محادثات مباشرة مع إسرائيل في مارس، لكن رئيس الوزراء الإسرائيلي بنيامين نتنياهو كان قد رفض ذلك حتى الأسبوع الماضي.

يتمتع الرئيس عون بتفويض شعبي، لكنه يواجه مقاومة شديدة من حزب الله. insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists insists 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لا يعني أي من هذا أن المحادثات بين لبنان وإسرائيل في المستقبل من المحتمل أن تسفر عن نتائج إيجابية.

الفوضى الحالية هي نتيجة رئيسية لقيام حزب الله مرة أخرى بسحب لبنان إلى الحرب مع إسرائيل. في المستقبل، ستتوقع إسرائيل نتائج، وليس مجرد خطب، بشأن نزع سلاح حزب الله.

نظرًا للطبيعة المتجذرة لمشكلة حزب الله، فإن الطريقة الوحيدة للتعامل مع الجولة المقبلة من المفاوضات هي أن يسعى الجانبان إلى اتخاذ تدابير لبناء الثقة. الاجتماع الأول في واشنطن هو خطوة أولى مرحب بها وتاريخية، ولكن يجب على كلا الجانبين الآن اتخاذ إجراءات أكثر تحديدًا.

يجب على إسرائيل أن تعترف بأن هذه الحكومة اللبنانية تمثل أفضل فرصة لنزع سلاح حزب الله وفصل البلاد عن إيران. ينبغي عليها تجنب المزيد من الهجمات على البنية التحتية للدولة والمراكز الحضرية، وخاصة بيروت، التي تعرض المدنيين للخطر، وتضعف الحكومة اللبنانية وتعزز رواية حزب الله عن المقاومة.

بينما يجب على الحكومة اللبنانية أن تجعل من الصعب قدر الإمكان على حزب الله العمل. سياسيًا، يجب أن تفكر في طرد وزراء حزب الله من الحكومة، نظرًا لأن مسؤولي المجموعة قد اتهموا الحكومة بالخيانة. ماليًا، يجب على الحكومة أن تحظر جميع الأنشطة المالية لحزب الله. وعسكريًا، يمكنها توجيه الجيش لنشر قواته في جميع أنحاء بيروت بما في ذلك ضواحيها الجنوبية، ومصادرة أي أسلحة تعود لحزب الله في العاصمة، واعتقال أي شخص يهدد السلام المدني.

لتحقيق النجاح في المفاوضات مع إسرائيل، تحتاج الحكومة اللبنانية إلى الدعم الدبلوماسي من المملكة العربية السعودية ودول عربية أخرى بالإضافة إلى زيادة المساعدات العسكرية من الولايات المتحدة. يحتاج الجيش اللبناني إلى مزيد من الأدوات والتمويل ليكون قادرًا على تنفيذ المهام المختلفة المتعلقة بنزع سلاح حزب الله.

كلما تصرفت الحكومة اللبنانية بشكل أسرع وأكثر مصداقية، زادت احتمالية تعاون إسرائيل، وسيدعمها واشنطن والدول العربية. سيساعد التقدم الملموس في نزع سلاح حزب الله، حتى وإن كان تدريجيًا، كلا الجانبين على مناقشة كيفية إقامة ترتيب أمني جديد في الجنوب.

في النهاية، قد يؤدي ذلك إلى ترسيم الحدود البرية بين لبنان وإسرائيل، وانسحاب إسرائيلي كامل، وإطلاق سراح جميع السجناء اللبنانيين في إسرائيل، وفي النهاية، اتفاق سلام رسمي. إنها طريق طويلة ومتعرجة، ولكن لا يوجد بديل أفضل.