Houthi escalation could further disrupt the global economy – and worsen conditions in Yemen.
The Houthis, the Iran-aligned group in Yemen, launched a missile attack on Israel on 28 March. A statement by the group said its missiles targeted ‘sensitive Israeli military sites’ and added that its operations will continue until the ‘aggression’ on all fronts ends.
The decision by the Houthis to join the broader Middle East conflict marks a serious and deeply concerning escalation. Their involvement risks widening an already volatile war, with significant implications for regional stability, global trade, and humanitarian conditions – particularly in Yemen.
The potential impact on key commercial maritime routes, especially in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, cannot be overstated. These waterways are critical to global shipping and energy supplies.
Any sustained disruption will drive up shipping costs, increase oil prices, and place additional strain on a fragile global economy that is already reeling from the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, vital economic and military infrastructure across the Gulf region may become increasingly exposed.
The Houthis refrained from entering the conflict in its early stages, unlike Hezbollah. But their eventual involvement was anticipated by many. Iran’s broader strategy of activating allied groups across the region appears to be unfolding.
However, while the Houthis tried to frame their actions as support for Palestine also, this move is unlikely to receive widespread public backing within Yemen. Over time, it will only further reinforce contentious perceptions of the group as an extension of Iranian influence.
Yemen’s fragile peace
This development also threatens to derail fragile peace efforts in Yemen. After years of devastating conflict since 2015, the country remains home to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, as consistently highlighted by the United Nations. Renewed escalation could deepen the suffering of millions of civilians already facing severe food insecurity, displacement, and limited access to healthcare.
Should the Houthis expand their operations to include attacks on neighbouring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, the consequences could be even more severe.
The Houthis are better placed than Iran to threaten Saudi infrastructure and Western military bases in the Gulf. Recent rhetoric suggests such attacks remain a possibility. Such actions would likely trigger a return to large-scale conflict, including renewed direct confrontation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Any such war would likely be more intense, more destructive, and even more devastating than previous rounds of fighting. It also means we will witness a resumption of the Saudi-Houthi war of 2015 that was put into a truce in 2022.