As the second Trump administration enters its second year in office, it is an important moment to take stock of its policy accomplishments in the Middle East. While it may not have been perfect, the administration achieved a considerable amount, and there is reason to be optimistic that additional dividends will accrue in 2026. President Donald Trump’s audacious, results-oriented approach has weakened key American adversaries, expanded important alliances, and avoided potential quagmires. That is not bad at all for a president who was not expected to make much of an effort in the Middle East, and quite good compared to many other modern presidencies.
Iran: Frightening the Regime and Creating Diplomatic Leverage
Iran: Trump’s actions, particularly the airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear program in conjunction with Israel’s air campaign in June 2025, appear to have profoundly frightened and weakened the regime. They were almost certainly an important element in the uprisings against the regime in December and January, and could even prove to be a “tipping point” triggering regime collapse amid further protests and crackdowns. These strikes, coupled with Trump’s maximum pressure 2.0 and the threat of renewed military operations, have not only damaged Tehran’s capabilities but have also created leverage for diplomacy. The new round of talks between the United States and Iran has the potential to permanently end Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its support to its proxy network of non-state militias. Such an outcome is hardly guaranteed. But even an agreement with Tehran that returned inspectors with unfettered access, forced it to surrender its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and eliminated all enrichment activity in Iran would be a major improvement over the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which Trump withdrew in 2018. The mere fact that Tehran is back at the negotiating table discussing such steps speaks to the impact of his handling of Iran.
Moreover, his unpredictability — which he is using as a tool to coerce Iranian concessions without invasion — has given some hope to Iran’s oppressed, unhappy populace. The administration’s restraint in the period after the 12-day war likewise succeeded in preventing escalation with Iran while keeping America’s options open. Even if Washington is unable to secure Iran’s agreement to cease all support for the Axis of Resistance (or they agree to cease but continue to do so clandestinely), forcing Iran to negotiate over this support could sow doubt among axis members regarding Tehran’s reliability and capability to continue to support them. That too would be beneficial to the United States and its allies. The response of Iranian proxies in Iraq serves as an example. They are still armed and in place, but they have been forced to lay low, and some or all of them may convert into political parties in some way, shape, or form. Even if they retain a covert military capacity, that would still be a significant improvement over the present when they carry weapons openly, operate checkpoints, abuse average Iraqis, and generally act with overt contempt for Iraq’s lawful government.
Israel-Palestine: The Gaza Cease-Fire and Revived Peace Process
Israel-Palestine: The October 2025 Gaza cease-fire and hostage-release deal was of tremendous importance to Israelis, Palestinians, Americans, and the rest of the Middle East. The agreement is not a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it halted a war that had been raging for two years, had lost its strategic purpose, and which no one else had been able to end. None of that should be undervalued. The wider initiative of the 20-point plan may prove to be yet another false start toward securing that final Israeli-Palestinian peace. However, two other aspects are important to consider. First, the plan recognized that the cease-fire was only possible within the context of a more comprehensive set of steps that could plausibly (although certainly not inevitably) produce such a new pathway to peace. This demonstrated a significant capacity to learn quickly and well on the part of the administration in light of earlier complaints that the Trump team did not understand the many complicated layers of issues. Second, the plan reaffirmed the importance of a negotiated settlement to the conflict that ensured Israeli security and resulted in a Palestinian state of some kind as part of a final settlement. The new peace process that Trump’s Board of Peace and its subsidiary elements are meant to carry through may not succeed either; none of the dozens of past such efforts have. But all of this revives the possibility of peace, or even just meaningful progress, at a time when no one thought that possible.
Yemen: Operation Rough Rider and Reduced Houthi Threats
Yemen and the Houthis: It is hard to know exactly what impact the Operation Rough Rider airstrikes carried out in spring 2025 had on the Houthis in Yemen. They certainly appear to have destroyed a number of important military assets, but how much of the Houthi arsenal they represented is difficult to assess. What is clear is that the group’s attacks on shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea have declined. While shipping still remains well below pre-crisis levels, as of June 2025, volume of traffic increased 60% over the prior year. Even if these changes are a product of Iranian demands on the Houthis rather than the pain from the airstrikes, that too would have to be counted as another successful impact of Trump’s policies.
Regional Stability: The Syria Opening and Strategic Bets
Regional Stability: The United States and its allies generally seek stability across the Middle East. Here as well, Trump’s policies — if not necessarily his unpredictable methods — have brought some important achievements. The administration’s bold decision to give the new Syrian regime a chance to prove itself a force for peace and stability in the region, realized in particular by its lifting of sanctions on Damascus, was exactly the kind of smart, brave step that could fundamentally reshape the regional state system, further isolate Iran, remove a threat to Israel and Lebanon, and eliminate a dangerous source of terrorism in the Middle East. The opening to Syria is not guaranteed to work, but it is an entirely reasonable bet, one backed by many of America’s key allies in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. And if it succeeds, the payoff could be huge. It is another area in which Trump’s willingness to act decisively based on his own instincts and personal relations could deliver a major accomplishment. Moreover, the downside risks are low: The United States can always reimpose sanctions and other punishments on the regime should it fail to live up to its own promises.
Acknowledging Missteps While Claiming Effective Reset
This is not to suggest that there have not been false starts, missteps, and mistakes along the way. Nor is it to argue that the Middle East is going to be Switzerland any time soon. There is no magician’s wand that could do that. However, it does suggest that Trump’s policies in 2025 could be reasonably seen as an effective reset. Decisive action has put Iran on the ropes, revived the process for normalization in the region, and maintained US deterrence without overextension. Signing major investment deals with America’s Gulf partners and increasing trade with the region may not produce instant peace or prosperity either, but they are all worthwhile in themselves. Even more than that, they could prove to be the building blocks that give later generations a chance at that better Middle East. After all, before World War II, Americans saw much of the European continent gripped by authoritarianism, prejudice, militarist imperialism, economic instability, and the threat of conflict. Then, bold American actions helped Western Europeans turn their half of the continent into a model of success in a little over a generation.
Optimism for an Administration Willing to Take Risks
In the first year of its second term, the Trump administration showed that it is intent upon advancing US interests amid global competition, and peace is a large component of that strategy. There is reason to be optimistic that even the mercurial Middle East will not prove immune to the efforts of an administration willing to take risks, employ decisive action, and think very much outside the box.