Trump promises a fast Iran deal, but behind-the-scenes US Iran diplomacy remains paralyzed by leverage, sequencing, and deep credibility gaps.
Browsing: Stalemate
The ceasefire will not collapse because there is no real ceasefire to collapse, only a managed stalemate serving all sides.
Trump says don’t rush him. But Iran holds Hormuz, mines take six months to clear, and US public support is cratering.
Iran wages attrition through exhaustion and pain. Air power is rarely decisive. US goals risk mission creep. Compromise is necessary.
The Russian-Ukrainian war enters its fifth year with no end in sight; casualties approach two million.
The emerging strategy for Gaza is to accept a permanent stalemate. Israel would sponsor limited reconstruction in controlled zones, intentionally withholding it from Hamas-controlled areas to turn deprivation into a political tool, ensuring a “forever misery” for most.