If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire.
The widening gyre
As the war with Iran enters its fourth week, the global impacts are hitting hard. Attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East and Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital energy corridor, are sending fuel prices soaring. US president Donald Trump has pressed Europeans to reduce the fallout by helping to reopen the strait, even threatening NATO’s future if they fail to comply.
Over the weekend, Trump warned he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it does not reopen the waterway, adding a five day pause on Monday subject to negotiations. Tehran has responded by warning that while the strait is currently open to all except those who “violate” its sovereignty, such American attacks would shut it down entirely.
How to push for peace
European leaders and their partners have stepped up with an offer to Trump. In a statement released on March 19th, over 20 nations—including Britain, France, Germany and Italy—outlined a “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure” the freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
This announcement is welcome but needs to broaden in both membership and scope to help end the war and reduce European vulnerabilities in the Strait of Hormuz. Europeans in this coalition should:
Widen the coalition into an international peace and security group aimed at safeguarding freedom of navigation for energy supplies. This should include China, India, Indonesia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all of which have a shared interest. Washington and Tehran seem to be trapped in cycle of escalation over the strait and the five-day grace period is fragile. The coalition and these additional members should press them towards a total ceasefire. At this stage, the group should not include America as this could risk making it a war coalition against Iran.
Push for a ceasefire between the US and Iran by:
Making an offer to Washington. Given Trump’s clear focus on the need to open the strait, that group’s facilitation for restoring freedom of navigation, including deploying a naval force, should be firmly conditioned on a ceasefire.
Pushing Tehran to accept the ceasefire by connecting it to a broader political offer. Once the ceasefire is in place, the coalition can help ensure that Iran stops harassing shipping routes by providing naval escorts to energy shipments.
Feed the hungry: as a prelude to this ceasefire, the group should support the UN effort to broker an initial deal allowing for the passage of vessels related to food and fertilisers. This could be modelled on the Turkish-UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022.
Secure the future by:
Deploying the naval force in the Strait of Hormuz to help with minesweeping and monitoring and guaranteeing freedom of navigation through the strait as part of sustaining the ceasefire between Iran and the US.
Offering to support a broader US-Iran peace deal through a “day after” package, such as investment in rebuilding Iranian energy infrastructure, with a focus on boosting renewable energy.
Investing in a longer-term effort to:
Diversify European energy sources, especially green ones.
Safeguard critical chokepoints along global trade routes with a sustained maritime presence.
Seek diversified supply routes including through investment in new pipelines from the Middle East to Europe that relieve pressure on the Strait of Hormuz.
A sidelined Europe
Europeans have had little role in the American-Israeli decision to start this war, and may play little role in its outcome. Reaching enough unity will require defining European interests in a way that speaks to the immediate concerns of most leaders and avoids exacerbating their divides. This means focusing on energy security and prices—where the war has hit Europe hardest.