Israel freed hostages and holds buffer zones, but Hamas survives, governs half of Gaza, and gained diplomatic stature—making victory ambiguous.
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Hamas remains the key obstacle to lasting peace; defeating it requires parallel U.S.-led efforts on Palestinian security, PA reform, and Arab normalization.
Each option for Hamas fighters carries major risks—from local security collapse to creating a global militant diaspora.
The plan aims to leverage a ceasefire into broader Arab-Israeli normalization and a path to two states. However, implementing its complex terms requires daily diplomatic miracles amid profound distrust and active sabotage from all sides.
Friedman calls the conflict the “Worst War,” leaving both sides devastated. He argues the only viable solution is an international body to oversee Gaza and the West Bank, ensuring demilitarization and rebuilding Palestinian governance.
The plan’s reliance on nations with ties to Hamas or restrictive rules of engagement mirrors flawed past missions. Without a committed, unbiased force, the stabilization effort may become ineffective, enabling rearmament and prolonging violence instead of securing lasting peace.
The agreement implicitly accepts Hamas’s continued political role and shelves annexation plans, contrary to Israeli government pledges. This necessary defeat of Netanyahu’s maximalist vision opens a path toward stability, backed by Arab states and a U.S.-led diplomatic framework.
Historical allegations of genocide during Iraq sanctions were later proven false, based on data manipulated by Saddam Hussein’s regime. Similar unverified statistics from Hamas are now used to accuse Israel, aiming to influence policy amid the Gaza conflict.
The ceasefire’s new governing bodies are undermined by undefined roles and limited Palestinian representation. With Hamas refusing to disarm and Israel refusing to withdraw, the stalemate persists, highlighting that security and reconstruction cannot succeed without a credible political horizon for statehood.
The strike targeted Hamas negotiators in Doha, damaging Qatar’s mediation role. It exposes unequal U.S. security commitments, prioritizing Israel over Arab allies. This will likely push Gulf states to further diversify their security partnerships with China and Russia.