Achieving a lasting settlement with Iran requires the United States to restrain Israeli military actions and restore traditional diplomatic order.
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To avoid a decade-long trap, the U.S. must offer Iran a path to normalization rather than pursuing futile, open-ended containment.
A fragile ceasefire pauses US-Iran hostilities, but unresolved regional tensions and damaged diplomatic norms pose long-term risks to global stability
A fragile two-week ceasefire pauses the US-Iran conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz while leaving Lebanon’s status dangerously unresolved.
Despite intensive bombardment and leadership assassinations, the failure to achieve regime change or contain Iranian responses perpetuates a high-stakes regional stalemate.
Faced with Gulf energy shortages and U.S. strategic abandonment, Japan and South Korea are pivoting toward nuclear self-reliance and potential armament.
Conflicting U.S. and Israeli war aims jeopardize the effectiveness of the Iran campaign,leaving the Islamic Republic resilient despite significant leadership losses.
Declaring victory allows the Trump administration to exit an intensifying conflict, prioritizing political survival over the complexities of a formal multilateral peace.
Operation Epic Fury has rejuvenated Iranian state legitimacy and unified the Arab street against Israeli regional hegemony and US maritime impotence.
A profound collapse in U.S. credibility has ceded the Arab world’s “moral high ground” to China, Russia, and a surging Iran.