“Bravado is not a substitute for strategy, and a dream of regional dominance is not a security policy.”
Browsing: Lebanon
Hezbollah’s use of anti-tank weaponry and ambushes is successfully denying Israel the “buffer zone” sought since early March.
Hezbollah is navigating a dual battle for military survival against Israel and political relevance within an increasingly hostile Lebanon.
Israel’s “Gaza-ification” of Lebanon involves killing journalists in marked vehicles to deter the act of bearing witness and accountability.
Hezbollah fights for survival. Lebanon bans its military activity. Israel should avoid prolonged occupation while pursuing diplomacy.
Jamaa al-Islamiyya shifted toward armed engagement after 2023. US designations facilitate Israeli targeting. Lebanon’s Sunnis pay the price.
Hezbollah adapts to guerrilla warfare. Lebanese government cannot disarm the group without civil war. Occupation will reenergize resistance.
Israel plans extended occupation. Over 1,000 Lebanese killed. Hezbollah reconfigures for insurgency. Public opinion may turn against Israel.
Under UN Resolution 1701, the Litani River was an informal red line, but that framework has now been fully abandoned by Israel’s escalating military campaign.
Lebanon edges toward collapse as Europe must support French diplomacy and Lebanese Armed Forces to prevent refugee crisis.