A ceasefire negotiated on Iranian terms signals a historic strategic miscalculation, undermining U.S. leverage and granting Tehran newfound diplomatic authority.
Browsing: Trita Parsi
“Seizing Iranian islands may be tactically feasible, but it will not break the strategic impasse or end the maritime blockade.”
Trump faces a lose-lose situation as Iran gains leverage. Negotiation is the only option, but Tehran’s demands and Israel’s sabotage may close his window for a face-saving exit.
Israel’s rivalry with Iran is not over, but its gaze has already shifted to Turkey.
Trump’s war on Iran has three possible ends: regime collapse, Iranian retaliation outlasting U.S. will, or a return to the deal.
Trump’s “small attack” plan is a miscalculation; Iran would retaliate forcefully, risking wider war and an exit-less conflict.
As Iran cracks down, Trump’s instincts favor staying out, seeking a deal rather than a messy, high-risk war.