فشار سریع تهران برای تصویب کنوانسیون دریای خزر نشاندهنده یک چرخش استراتژیک عمده است در حالی که فشارهای جنگی در مرز شمالی ایران افزایش مییابد. با تصویب کنوانسیون دریای خزر بدون تأمین مرزهای مشخص بستر دریا یا سهمهای دریایی، سیاستگذاران ایرانی در معرض خطر واگذاری مزایای کلیدی انرژی و ترانزیت به رقبای منطقهای و کریدورهای تجاری تحت حمایت غرب قرار دارند.
ریسکهای کنوانسیون دریای خزر
هفته گذشته، کابینه ایران یکی از جنجالیترین پروندههای منطقهای کشور را احیا کرد و لایحهای برای تصویب کنوانسیون ۲۰۱۸ وضعیت قانونی دریای خزر را تأیید کرد. این توافق به مدت هشت سال به دلیل اعتراضات جدی قانونی، امنیتی و اقتصادی متوقف مانده بود.
بازگشت ناگهانی آن، در حالی که ایران درگیر جنگی طولانی با ایالات متحده و اسرائیل است، یک سؤال فوری را مطرح میکند: چرا در لحظهای که کشور به شدت به اهرم استراتژیک نیاز دارد، باید تسلیم شود؟
این تصمیم نمیتواند به عنوان یک موضوع قانونی محدود دیده شود. این موضوع در کنار مسیر انرژی ترانسکاسپین، کریدور زنگزور در آذربایجان و ادامه برنامهریزی شده آن از طریق ارمنستان تحت عنوان “مسیر ترامپ” قرار دارد.
این پروژهها به طور مشترک یک کریدور یکپارچه شرق-غرب را تشکیل میدهند که ایران را دور میزند، آن را از مزایای ژئو-اقتصادی محروم میکند و یک محاصره ژئوپلیتیکی که در حال حاضر در مرز شمال غربی آن شکل میگیرد، تنگتر میکند.
روسیه از تهران خواسته است که سریعاً اقدام کند. در دسامبر، وزیر امور خارجه سرگئی لاوروف به طور علنی ابراز امیدواری کرد که ایران قبل از اجلاس بعدی دریای خزر، که برای اوت ۲۰۲۶ در تهران برنامهریزی شده است، کنوانسیون را تصویب کند.
ایران تنها کشور ساحلی است که هنوز تصویب را کامل نکرده است. این جدول زمانی دیپلماتیک ممکن است توضیحدهنده شتاب دولت باشد، اما به اعتراضاتی که سالها این توافق را از ورود به پارلمان بازداشت، پاسخ نمیدهد.
چگونه کنوانسیون دریای خزر تهدید میکند
یک معاهده مورد مناقشه بازمیگردد
این کنوانسیون در پنجمین اجلاس دریای خزر در آکتائو در اوت ۲۰۱۸ توسط ایران، روسیه، آذربایجان، قزاقستان و ترکمنستان امضا شد. متخصصان ایرانی در حقوق بینالملل، امنیت ملی و اقتصاد بلافاصله به چالشهای فنی، قانونی، نظامی و اقتصادی آن اعتراض کردند.
پارلمان تأیید نهایی خود را معلق کرد و پرونده به مدت هشت سال راکد ماند. دولت رئیسجمهور ایران، مسعود پزشکیان، اکنون آن را به مسیر قانونی بازگردانده است، با وجود موانع قانونی، امنیتی و اقتصادی که مانع از تصویب آن در ابتدا شده بود.
این کنوانسیون به خودی خود درصد ثابتی از دریای خزر را به هر کشور اختصاص نمیدهد. این سؤال سیاسی انفجاری همچنان مشمول توافقات جداگانهای درباره خطوط مبنا و تعیین حدود بستر دریا و زیرزمین است. با این حال، منتقدان نگران هستند که پذیرش چارچوب جدید، موقعیت ایران را در این مذاکرات تضعیف کند.
احمد بخشایش اردستانی، عضو کمیسیون امنیت ملی و سیاست خارجی پارلمان، به تابناک گفت که پارلمان باید از دولت بخواهد که سهم ایران را قبل از تصویب لایحه تعیین کند.
او گفت: “دولت باید به دنبال تأمین سهم 20 درصدی ایران تحت رژیم قانونی دریای خزر باشد، که پس از آن موضوع باید برای تصویب به پارلمان ارائه شود.” به گفته این نماینده، سهم کنونی ایران حدود 9 تا 13 درصد است. “البته باید توجه داشت که افزایش سهم ایران به 20 درصد ممکن است با اعتراضاتی از سوی برخی کشورهای ساحلی، از جمله جمهوری آذربایجان، مواجه شود، زیرا سهم کشورهای مختلف بر اساس طول خط ساحلی و شرایط جغرافیایی مورد مناقشه است. با این حال، با توجه به موقعیت ساحلی ایران، سهم 20 درصدی میتواند به عنوان سهم قابل قبولی در نظر گرفته شود.”
تصمیمی در زمان جنگ که در تاریکی اتخاذ شد
“دولت پزشکیان این کنوانسیون را در زمانی تصویب کرده است که ایران درگیر یک جنگ ترکیبی تعیینکننده است. در چنین فضایی که حفظ وحدت ملی یک ضرورت حیاتی است، طرح چنین موضوعی که موجب تفرقه میشود، قابل سؤال است. نکته عجیبتر این است که دولت اعلام کرده است که بند مربوط به مذاکرات درباره تعیین حدود بستر دریا و زیرزمین (که حاوی ذخایر وسیع نفت و گاز است) به طور موقت از دستور کار خارج شده است. با این حال، چنین معاهده بینالمللی مهمی باید به طور کامل پذیرفته یا رد شود؛ تقسیم اجزای مختلف آن هیچ اعتبار قانونی ندارد و نشاندهنده نوعی تصمیمگیری غیرشفاف است.”
نقصها در کنوانسیون دریای خزر
قبل از کنوانسیون ۲۰۱۸، تهران به معاهدات ۱۹۲۱ و ۱۹۴۰ خود با مسکو به عنوان مبنای تاریخی حقوق خود در دریای خزر تکیه میکرد. این توافقها آبراه را به عنوان دریای دوستی و استفاده مشترک بین ایران و اتحاد جماهیر شوروی در نظر میگرفتند، بدون اینکه مرزهای دریایی را مشخص کنند. فروپاشی شوروی چهار کشور ساحلی جانشین ایجاد کرد و نیاز به یک توافق جدید را ضروری ساخت، اما چارچوب آکتائو فراتر از یک بهروزرسانی فنی بود.
بهمن استدلال میکند که مقدمه کنوانسیون به طور مؤثری معاهدات قبلی را نادیده میگیرد و اسنادی را که ایران بر اساس آنها ادعاهای خود را مطرح کرده بود، رها میکند. او به استقرار هواپیماهای جنگی ایران در سال ۲۰۰۱ بر روی یک کشتی اکتشافی اجارهای از سوی BP که برای آذربایجان در آبهای مورد ادعای ایران فعالیت میکرد، اشاره میکند. این کشتی عقبنشینی کرد. از آن زمان، ایران با تقسیم خط میانهای که منتقدان میگویند ممکن است تنها حدود هفت تا ۱۳ درصد از دریای خزر را برای آن باقی بگذارد، مخالفت کرده است.
تضمینهای امنیتی با شکافهای خطرناک
این کنوانسیون یک رژیم حقوقی ویژه را برقرار میکند و دریای خزر را مستقیماً تحت کنوانسیون ۱۹۸۲ سازمان ملل در مورد حقوق دریاها (UNCLOS) قرار نمیدهد. هر کشور تا ۱۵ مایل دریایی آبهای سرزمینی دریافت میکند، که پس از آن یک منطقه ماهیگیری انحصاری به عرض ۱۰ مایل دریایی قرار دارد، در حالی که سطح باقیمانده به عنوان فضای دریایی مشترک تعیین شده است.
دکتر حمید حکیم، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی در تهران، در گفتگو با The Cradle میگوید: “این ساختار میتواند حضور کشتیهای نظامی کشورهای ساحلی را در فاصلههای نسبتاً نزدیک به سواحل ایران افزایش دهد؛ موضوعی که با توجه به تراکم جمعیت در استانهای شمالی و نزدیکی این منطقه به تهران و برخی مراکز حساس کشور، از منظر امنیت ملی قابل توجه است.”
از سوی دیگر، باید توجه داشت که کنوانسیون حضور نیروهای مسلح کشورهای غیرساحلی را در دریای خزر ممنوع میکند و یکی از اصول اساسی آن جلوگیری از استقرار نیروهای نظامی خارجی در این آبراه است. این حفاظتها مهم هستند، اما همانطور که حکیم استدلال میکند: “این ممنوعیت به طور ضروری تمام اشکال همکاریهای اطلاعاتی، فنی یا لجستیکی بین کشورهای ساحلی و دولتهای غیرساحلی را رد نمیکند؛ بنابراین، پتانسیل چالشهای امنیتی همچنان وجود دارد.
به عنوان مثال، حتی کشتیهای اسرائیلی میتوانند تحت پرچم آذربایجان در این منطقه ظاهر شوند و امنیت ایران را به چالش بکشند. همچنین، کنوانسیون فقط اقدام نظامی کشورهای غیرساحلی علیه کشورهای ساحلی را ممنوع میکند، نه ‘ترانزیت؛’ این شکاف قانونی درها را برای جاسوسی و حضور غیرمستقیم نظامی این کشورها در دریای خزر باز میگذارد.”
عواقب اقتصادی حتی مستقیمتر هستند. ماده ۱۴ اجازه میدهد که خطوط لوله و کابلهای زیرآبی در مسیرهایی که تنها توسط کشورهایی که بخشهای آنها را قطع میکند توافق شده، با رعایت الزامات زیستمحیطی، نصب شوند. بنابراین ایران و روسیه قادر نخواهند بود که تنها با عدم موافقت، مانع از ساخت یک خط لوله بین ترکمنستان و آذربایجان شوند.
از منظر اقتصادی، ماده ۱۴ کنوانسیون را میتوان به عنوان یک “خودآسیبزایی ژئو اقتصادی” تمام عیار نامید.
به گفته دکتر محمد مهدی حاجیان، عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی، “قبلاً هیچ کشور ساحلی نمیتوانست خطوط لولهای را در بستر دریای خزر بسازد به دلیل اختلافات قانونی، و این مانع به عنوان یک اهرم قوی برای ایران و روسیه عمل میکرد تا از مسیرهای ترانزیت انرژی بهرهبرداری کنند. اما با تصویب این کنوانسیون، ترکمنستان و قزاقستان مجاز خواهند بود بدون دخالت ایران یا روسیه، خطوط لولهای را در بستر خزر بسازند و گاز خود را به طور مستقیم به آذربایجان و از آنجا به اروپا و اسرائیل منتقل کنند.”
حاجیان اضافه میکند: “این همان پروژه معروف خط لوله ترانسخزر است که سالها به دلیل مخالفتهای زیستمحیطی و ژئوپلیتیکی ایران و روسیه متوقف شده بود. اکنون، با این تصویب، آن مسیر باز میشود و ایران نه تنها درآمدهای ترانزیتی عظیمی را از دست میدهد بلکه با توجه به الگوی گردش آب دریای خزر که آلودگی را به سواحل جنوبی – یعنی ایران – منتقل میکند، هر گونه نشتی از این خطوط لوله میتواند فاجعه زیستمحیطی برای ایران به همراه داشته باشد.”
پیوند گمشده در کریدور
اینجا است که توافق دریای خزر به آنچه که کریدور زنگزور و مسیر ترامپ نامیده میشود، متصل میشود. اولی در حال توسعه در آذربایجان و نخجوان است؛ دومی از طریق استان سیونیک ارمنستان در امتداد مرز ایران ادامه خواهد یافت. شبکه برنامهریزی شده محدود به جادهها و راهآهن نیست. این شبکه همچنین میتواند خطوط لوله انرژی، خطوط برق و زیرساختهای دیجیتال را حمل کند.
دکتر احمد کاظمی از دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی بیان میکند که گاز وارد شده به باکو از طریق یک خط لوله ترانسکاسپین میتواند سپس از طریق این شبکه به سمت غرب حرکت کند بدون اینکه به خاک ایران وارد شود: “گاز از ترکمنستان و قزاقستان که از طریق خط لوله ترانسکاسپین به باکو میرسد، میتواند از طریق مسیر ترامپ و کریدور زنگزور به اروپا صادر شود بدون نیاز به خاک ایران.
به عبارت دیگر، تصویب کنوانسیون دریای خزر پیوند گمشدهای را برای تکمیل کریدور انرژی مورد نظر غرب فراهم میکند و دقیقاً آنچه را که ترامپ به دنبالش است برآورده میسازد: محروم کردن ایران از نقش ترانزیتی و کریدوری خود، در حالی که مسیر جایگزین مورد حمایت غرب و متحدان منطقهایاش را تقویت میکند. این سناریو به گونهای طراحی شده است که ایران را از نظر ژئوپلیتیکی تحت فشار قرار دهد و با تصویب این کنوانسیون، ایران ناخواسته به پیشبرد آن کمک میکند.”
کاظمی هشدار میدهد: “با اجرای این سه پروژه، نیروهای ناتو، اسرائیل، جداییطلبان پانترکی و تکفیریها به راحتی به مرزهای ایران، چین و روسیه دسترسی پیدا خواهند کرد و امنیت و تمامیت ارضی این سه کشور را تهدید خواهند کرد – موضوعی که در پسزمینه تقابل گستردهتر بین ایالات متحده و ناتو و این سه قدرت بزرگ شرقی برای هژمونی جهانی معنا پیدا میکند.”
چرا کنوانسیون دریای خزر را افشا میکند
سابقه بیپاسخ
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surrounding surrounding surrounding surrounding surrounding surrounding surrounding surrounding
تصویب کابینه به معنای اجرایی شدن کنوانسیون برای ایران نیست. این لایحه هنوز باید از مجلس شورای اسلامی عبور کند و خطوط مرزی و بستر دریا که حل نشدهاند، نیاز به مذاکرات بیشتری دارند. بنابراین، مجلس همچنان هم اختیار و هم وظیفه دارد که بررسی کند دولت از کشور چه چیزی را میخواهد واگذار کند.
حامیان کنوانسیون را به عنوان چارچوبی برای امنیت، حمل و نقل دریایی، شیلات، حفاظت از محیط زیست و همکاری میان پنج کشور ساحلی ارائه میدهند. اما هیچ منفعت نهادی نمیتوان ارزیابی کرد به جز نقشه کریدوری که در اطراف ایران شکل میگیرد.
مسیر ترانسکاسپین قدرت انرژی ایران را تضعیف میکند؛ مسیرهای زنگزور و ترامپ از قلمرو آن عبور میکنند؛ و قدرتهای خارجی به دسترسی اقتصادی و امنیتی جدیدی به مرز شمالی آن دست مییابند.
تهران نباید این ساختار را در ازای ضربالاجل نشست اوت یا فشار دیپلماتیک از مسکو تسهیل کند. در حداقل، باید خطوط مرزی را روشن کند، موضع خود را در مذاکرات بستر دریا حفظ کند، تضمینهای امنیتی قابل اجرا را درخواست کند و مفاد خط لوله را به یک بررسی کامل عمومی و پارلمانی مشمول کند.
دشمنان ایران سالها در حال ساخت مسیرهایی بودهاند که هدفشان بینیاز کردن کشور است. برای ایران خود، فراهم کردن پایه قانونی مفقود، فراتر از سهلانگاری خواهد بود. در میانه یک جنگ بر سر آینده منطقه، واگذاری اهرم ژئوپلیتیکی غیرقابل جایگزین به معنای خودکشی استراتژیک خواهد بود.