The lack of a coherent political opposition in Iran remains the central obstacle. The regime has systematically crushed dissent since 2009, leaving protesters without leadership. External military action risks uniting Iranians behind the flag or triggering civil war without ensuring democratic change.
Browsing: Governance
Unresolved tensions risk an ISIS resurgence and a prolonged Kurdish insurgency. Concessions like Kurdish community police, recognizing cultural rights in the constitution, and granting SDF leaders official roles could build trust and integrate Kurds into a unified Syria.
The crisis stems from unsustainable demand, prolonged drought, and chronic mismanagement. Necessary reforms—like raising prices or cutting subsidies—would undercut the regime’s political economy and could trigger unrest, leaving the government with few palatable options to keep Tehran habitable.
Reformist MPs from the Tishreen movement were sidelined through intimidation, co-option, and an uneven electoral field. Their collapse at the polls demonstrates how Iraq’s political system, dominated by established blocs with state resources, structurally excludes those seeking to change it from within.
By Kheder Khaddour and Issam Kayssi As Washington reduces its presence in the country, the success of its withdrawal and…
The current uprising is distinguished by widespread geography, diverse demographics, and the weakening of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” While regional powers fear instability, the potential for U.S. intervention and a looming succession crisis make the regime’s survival more uncertain than in previous years.
Iraq’s path to stability hinges on contestability over continuity. As PM Sudani withdraws his 2026 bid, the focus shifts to whether the new government can resist “state capture.” True security lies in institutional integrity rather than the perceived efficiency of a long-serving leader.
Iran faces its gravest test in decades as mass protests challenge the Islamic Republic amid economic collapse and regional setbacks. The regime’s survival now hinges on repression, resilience, and uncertain external pressure.
Iraq faces the dual challenge of managing spillover security risks from Syria’s collapse and navigating a weakened Iran. While this offers Baghdad a chance to assert independence, a stable, secure Iraq is its best defense against becoming a new frontline for Tehran.