Washington’s repeated betrayals, whether of the Kurds who fought ISIS or of Taiwan in 1978, demonstrate that American alliances are no longer durable. This erodes trust and encourages global partners to seek alternatives, weakening U.S. influence long‑term.

Many Iraqi politicians initially leaned toward Iran due to perceived U.S. betrayal or propaganda, but now seek integration with the West. Co‑opting these figures, rather than isolating them, could secure lasting stability and advance American interests in a post‑Iran era.

The IRGC’s control of 40% of the economy and its decentralized arms depots risk a violent scramble for power if the regime falls. While nostalgia for the monarchy persists, organized opposition remains fragmented, complicating any post‑theocratic transition.

Washington’s failure to counter China’s global inroads—from Somaliland to Iraq and South Asia—risks strategic defeat. Without integrating China policy across regions, U.S. actions remain fragmented, allowing Beijing to expand its political, economic, and military footprint unchecked.

Tariffs have lowered oil prices and slowed U.S. shale growth, benefiting OPEC+ market strategy. Middle Eastern renewable projects gain from cheap Chinese equipment, but economic uncertainty and potential dollar shifts pose long‑term challenges for the region’s macroeconomic stability.