Markets price a quick exit. But physical energy constraints, systemic economic risks, and lack of unified strategy suggest a prolonged, structurally disruptive conflict ahead.
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“This war, intended to weaken Iran, has in crucial ways strengthened it.”
Iran war markets reflect “geopolitical put option”: time and uncertainty drive pricing. Policy can reduce both.
Iran war roils energy markets: Brent tops $92, Hormuz choked, Qatari LNG halted. Strategic reserves cushion.
Prediction markets enable insider trading on military action, threatening national security through profit motives and intelligence leaks.
Trump’s energy dominance policy has boosted U.S. production, but global markets may not comply; allies are diversifying, and renewables grow.
A U.S. move on Greenland would signal a profound disruption of transatlantic order. The EU could retaliate using its Anti-Coercion Instrument, targeted tariffs, digital regulation, and financial measures like selling U.S. assets, aiming to raise costs and deter military action.