By triggering snapback sanctions, Europe has lost its key leverage over Iran. To prevent further nuclear escalation and regional conflict, it must now pivot to damage limitation through small, confidence-building deals instead of aligning with a confrontational U.S. pressure strategy.
To avoid triggering sanctions or losing leverage, Europe proposes extending the snapback deadline. This could involve Chinese inspections as a temporary verification measure, buying time for renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy and preventing further military escalation over Iran’s nuclear program.
Regional reactions to Iran’s protests vary: Israel hopes for regime collapse but remains cautious; Gulf states expect the regime to survive; Lebanon’s Hezbollah faces funding threats; and Turkey fears both instability and a newly rival pro-Western Iran.
French and UK governments should approve and fund Eutelsat satellite terminals to give Iranians an alternative to Starlink during blackouts. This can provide critical communication tools, help document human rights abuses, and counter Tehran’s move toward a closed, China-model intranet.
Once advocates for U.S. strikes on Iran, Gulf capitals now seek restraint, using their diplomatic ties with Tehran to avoid being caught in the crossfire. They view unpredictable U.S. support for Israel as a growing risk to regional stability.
Unlike 1979, today’s protests lack a unifying leader like Khomeini. The regime has shifted from promises to violent crackdowns to retain power. While grievances are deep, the movement remains fragmented without a clear vision or organized leadership.
To salvage Trump’s Gaza plan, Europeans and Arabs must offer joint implementation support while insisting on Palestinian decision-making, PA inclusion, and Hamas’s negotiated disarmament. This initiative aims to correct the plan’s sidelining of Palestinian sovereignty and lack of political horizon.
As Iran cracks down on protests, its citizens see Iraq’s model—where top cleric Sistani refuses political endorsements—as a democratic alternative to Tehran’s theocracy. This highlights a regional contest over political Islam and clerical authority in Shiite-majority states.
The public Saudi-UAE clash over Yemen reveals misaligned interests and poor communication. By publishing clear national security strategies and strengthening bilateral crisis-resolution forums, Gulf states can manage internal tensions and focus on shared regional challenges more effectively.
The STC’s capture of Yemen’s eastern border with Oman shattered Muscat’s security, forcing unprecedented coordination with Saudi Arabia to expel the separatists. The episode shows that neutrality offers no protection, only a fragile hope of containing regional spillover.