Costly Adaptation, Not Capitulation: Iran’s Likely Trajectory Under the Post—JCPOA Pressure Campaign
The analysis shows how Iran has adapted through sanctions evasion, eastward trade with China and Russia, de-dollarization, alternative banking systems, and welfare patronage networks that protect regime loyalists, ensuring state survival while shifting economic burdens onto the general population.
It proposes a phased transition: maintain strategic ambiguity, strengthen allies, bolster Taiwan’s self-defense, revitalize the One China Policy, expand diplomacy with Beijing, and reassure regional partners. Only after these steps should Washington clearly rule out direct military intervention.
Experts discussed a potential thaw in EU-China relations amid a shifting geopolitical landscape. While China expressed willingness to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction, European participants were cautious, citing distrust over Beijing’s alignment with Russia and its neutrality as a potential peacekeeper.
Fighting between the army and RSF paramilitary has devastated Sudan, displacing 12 million and leaving 25 million acutely hungry. Foreign powers are accused of fueling the conflict with arms, while overwhelmed neighbors struggle with a massive refugee influx amid chronic aid shortages.
Facing existential threats, the PMF has abandoned its cross-border militant role for the Axis of Resistance. Internally, factions now compete for control of its multi-billion dollar budget, crafting a new narrative as defenders against Sunni jihadism to justify their power
The arrangement, involving swapped fuel and unpaid debt, bypassed institutional oversight, sustaining both governments without reform. This pattern of personalized, elite-driven cooperation mirrors their sectarian power-sharing systems and deepens mutual vulnerability.
The Houthis’ deep ties with Iraqi militias provide arms, funding, and a launchpad for attacks, transforming them into a regional force. Yet with key allies like Hezbollah weakened and Syria’s regime fallen, Iran may rely on the Houthis more, even as the axis declines.
A study argues the U.S. missed three key chances to prevent Yemen’s war between 2011-2015, including by not restraining former President Saleh or moderating Saudi war aims. These failures, rooted in short-term priorities and flawed assumptions, enabled the Houthis’ rise to global disruptors.
The strikes have severely damaged Iran’s nuclear program, but the long-term effects remain uncertain. Analysts debate whether this will spur nuclear proliferation or deter it, while examining the muted response from Iran’s supposed allies like China and Russia.
Israeli policy in the West Bank, driven by a hard-right government, has accelerated de facto annexation through land confiscation and economic restrictions. This not only deepens Palestinian hardship but also threatens to derail Gaza peace plans by weakening the Palestinian Authority.
