Iraq seeks to maintain U.S. military and financial support, fearing a full American withdrawal that would empower Iran and threaten stability.
Browsing: Iran
The U.S. considers military strikes and pressure on Iran to weaken the government, but clear strategic goals remain elusive.
U.S. envoys should use the threat of military strikes to press Iran for nuclear, missile, and human rights concessions.
Ending U.S. waivers on Iranian energy exports can push Iraq toward independence, reducing Tehran’s leverage as Iran itself cuts supplies.
Iran’s ethnic divisions risk violent fragmentation if the regime falls, challenging U.S. assumptions of a stable, centralized successor state.
China used economic ties and support for Iran to exploit post-Arab Spring instability, turning the region into a key front in US‑China competition.
Iran’s protests are fueled by economic hardship, but external threats and intelligence messaging risk escalating unrest into dangerous confrontation.
Iran’s control of oil chokepoints and sanction-evading networks make military intervention a high-risk, unpredictable option.
Iraq’s crackdown on Kataib Hezbollah aims to weaken Iran’s strongest proxy and counter militia-empowering legislation ahead of critical elections.
Trump’s demands that Iran dismantle its missile program and end proxy support are designed to be rejected, making a second strike inevitable.