With Iran’s regime cornered by protests, Hezbollah fears its survival is at stake. Beirut has stalled disarmament, but U.S. pressure can compel the Lebanese Army to move north of the Litani River now, before the narrow window of opportunity closes.
Browsing: Iran
The U.S. and Israel have overcome decades of hesitation to strike Iran directly, calling the regime’s bluff. With its threats of wider war now empty and protesters defying repression, Tehran faces an existential dilemma: fundamental change or collapse.
The strategy calls for a “decent peace” with China via military balance, not domination. It states allies like Japan and South Korea must assume primary defense responsibility, as direct U.S. security guarantees become more limited.
This cross-Gulf cooperation, backed by Iran, aims to secure weapon supply routes, expand asymmetric warfare capabilities, and project influence over vital sea lanes. It merges local militant interests with Tehran’s broader strategy of regional disruption.
Riyadh’s strategy blends cooperation with Turkey against Iran, leveraging tribal networks in northeast Syria, and rallying Gulf diplomatic pressure against Israeli expansion. Success depends on Damascus’s ability to unify the country amid persistent external interference.
The strategy signals a shift from direct U.S. military management to empowering Gulf partners as primary security providers. This institutionalizes regional autonomy within a framework of U.S. strategic deterrence and prioritizes economic and technological cooperation over conflict.
Washington must pressure regional patrons—especially the UAE—and include Sudanese civil society to forge a viable peace. Without addressing the proxy dimensions and local agency, diplomatic initiatives will fail to halt the humanitarian and strategic crisis.
Iraq’s reliance on affordable Chinese goods and investment, paired with political alignment among Shia elites, embeds Beijing’s long-term influence. However, Baghdad maintains critical security and financial ties to the U.S., reflecting a constrained hedging strategy.
Brodsky advocates for comprehensive pressure and targeted strikes to exploit regime fragility, while Citrinowicz warns military action would consolidate the regime and prefers sustained sanctions to force internal change. Both agree the regime’s long-term stability is doubtful.
The shift stems from a recalculated Arab national interest: containing Israeli hegemony and preventing state fragmentation. Iran’s potential collapse is now seen as a direct threat to regional stability, overriding past sectarian and proxy conflicts.