Despite high volumes of hacktivism and disruptive attacks on banks and exchanges, cyber operations failed to deliver strategic military advantages. Their impact was largely psychological and temporary, underscoring their role as an enabling capability rather than a revolutionary force in modern warfare.
Browsing: Iran
Al-Maliki’s candidacy reflects Iran’s need for a strong, reliable partner in Baghdad to manage its security and economic interests. Despite internal pressures, Tehran retains deep institutional influence in Iraq, demonstrating that the country’s stability remains precariously tied to external rivalries.
Despite Iran’s crucial drone support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, Moscow offered no military aid after attacks on Iranian nuclear sites. The Kremlin’s treaty with Tehran does not obligate defense, revealing Russia’s limited capacity and reluctance to open new fronts.
Maliki is seen as a weak, Iranian-backed figure whose return would reignite Shiite infighting, Sunni alienation, and Kurdish secessionist tendencies. His premiership would likely lead to renewed violence, international isolation, and a dangerous regression to the pre-ISIS era of state collapse.
The venue change underscores Oman’s unique trust with Tehran. However, its traditional discreet mediation may now be insufficient. Muscat must candidly persuade Iran that interpreting U.S. engagement as weakness is a dangerous illusion, to avert an accidental war.
The widest bargaining space may be Iran’s regional proxies, which are tools of influence rather than existential assets. However, Tehran views its missile arsenal as a vital shield and is unlikely to dismantle it, even under threat of war.
Key questions remain over Iran’s potential concessions, like handing over its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Talks are seen as a short-term win for Tehran but will not resolve the regime’s economic, environmental, and political crises.
Beijing’s influence grows when regional dynamics offer easy wins but reverses quickly during instability. With no core interests at stake and foreign policy a lower priority, China adopts a passive approach, unable to shape events when diplomatic statements prove insufficient.
Despite setbacks, Iran remains a threat with enriched uranium and proxy networks. The U.S. strategy of disengagement risks being undermined by likely renewed conflict, leaving options to maintain a fragile status quo, outsource to Israel, or attempt a politically difficult new nuclear deal.
Maliki’s controversial two-term premiership entrenched corruption and sectarianism, leading to ISIS’s rise. While Iran supported his nomination, Trump’ unequivocal opposition forced Iraq’s Shia coalition into a stark choice: withdraw his candidacy or risk major U.S. political and economic consequences.