Iran strikes and Trump’s Gaza plan teach Gulf states: US security guarantees broken. Time for hard power.
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Iran turns geography into global economic weapon: Hormuz closure halts shipping, creates chokepoint leverage playbook.
Iran’s Hormuz closure removes 20M b/d—five times 1970s embargo. IEA releases 400M barrels, but limited.
Global impact of Iran war: neighbours fear spillover; most hedge, avoid criticizing US. War must end.
Middle East’s “1919 moment”: victorious alliance must manage differences to avoid post-WWI unraveling.
Iran war cost: $11.3B first six days, $16.5B at day 12. Munitions transition after day 5.
Iran war expanding, objectives ambiguous: US limits, Israel seeks regime change. Complexity grows. Outcome uncertain.
A Levant without militias? Syria disarmed SDF, Lebanon collects Hezbollah weapons, Iraq struggles with Hashd.
Ukraine offers Gulf drone expertise: combat-proven Shahed countermeasures. US should convene, boost ties, counter Russia.
Russia benefits from Gulf oil disruption: India buys stranded Russian crude, Urals premiums surge.