“North African history is in part one of food and energy price shocks translating into political instability.”
Browsing: Instability
Four succession scenarios loom: clerical rule, leadership flight, military junta, or uprising—each with distinct risks.
Israel is the main source of instability in the Middle East; the U.S. must fundamentally reappraise its relationship with Israel.
Israel’s Somaliland move secures Red Sea influence but risks major regional instability.
Pakistan’s security role grows, but domestic instability and economic limits challenge its reach.
Maliki is seen as a weak, Iranian-backed figure whose return would reignite Shiite infighting, Sunni alienation, and Kurdish secessionist tendencies. His premiership would likely lead to renewed violence, international isolation, and a dangerous regression to the pre-ISIS era of state collapse.
Maliki’s return risks reviving Iraq’s cycle of polarization and instability, undermining fragile progress.