A new peace process between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has prompted PKK fighters to ceremonially disarm in Iraqi Kurdistan, a development that could bring long-term stability to border regions long torn by conflict.
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Facing existential threats, the PMF has abandoned its cross-border militant role for the Axis of Resistance. Internally, factions now compete for control of its multi-billion dollar budget, crafting a new narrative as defenders against Sunni jihadism to justify their power
The arrangement, involving swapped fuel and unpaid debt, bypassed institutional oversight, sustaining both governments without reform. This pattern of personalized, elite-driven cooperation mirrors their sectarian power-sharing systems and deepens mutual vulnerability.
The Houthis’ deep ties with Iraqi militias provide arms, funding, and a launchpad for attacks, transforming them into a regional force. Yet with key allies like Hezbollah weakened and Syria’s regime fallen, Iran may rely on the Houthis more, even as the axis declines.
Iraq faces the dual challenge of managing spillover security risks from Syria’s collapse and navigating a weakened Iran. While this offers Baghdad a chance to assert independence, a stable, secure Iraq is its best defense against becoming a new frontline for Tehran.
Having secured electoral victories and control over key state institutions, the PMF leverages its formal status to enrich itself and challenge rivals. Its campaign to expel U.S. forces risks an ISIS resurgence and could turn Iraq into an Iranian client state.
Unlike previous conflicts, Iraq’s Iran-aligned factions now show restraint, having become entrenched state stakeholders. However, scenarios like a prolonged Iran-Israel war, a regime collapse in Tehran, or nuclear escalation could forcibly draw Iraq back into regional upheaval against its leaders’ will.
Oil shipments from the reopened pipeline to the U.S. highlight the deal’s strategic value. It provides discounted crude for American refineries, strengthens Iraq’s economy, and serves as a tool to counter Iranian influence by demonstrating tangible benefits of U.S. partnership.