The agreement provides Israel potential intelligence and naval access to monitor Houthi activities from Somaliland’s coastline. It marks a strategic shift after setbacks with Eritrea and Sudan, seeking to secure maritime routes amid continued regional instability.
Browsing: Geopolitics
With Iran’s regime cornered by protests, Hezbollah fears its survival is at stake. Beirut has stalled disarmament, but U.S. pressure can compel the Lebanese Army to move north of the Litani River now, before the narrow window of opportunity closes.
The strategy calls for a “decent peace” with China via military balance, not domination. It states allies like Japan and South Korea must assume primary defense responsibility, as direct U.S. security guarantees become more limited.
Riyadh’s strategy blends cooperation with Turkey against Iran, leveraging tribal networks in northeast Syria, and rallying Gulf diplomatic pressure against Israeli expansion. Success depends on Damascus’s ability to unify the country amid persistent external interference.
Iraq’s reliance on affordable Chinese goods and investment, paired with political alignment among Shia elites, embeds Beijing’s long-term influence. However, Baghdad maintains critical security and financial ties to the U.S., reflecting a constrained hedging strategy.
Brodsky advocates for comprehensive pressure and targeted strikes to exploit regime fragility, while Citrinowicz warns military action would consolidate the regime and prefers sustained sanctions to force internal change. Both agree the regime’s long-term stability is doubtful.
Riyadh employs a calculated, risk-averse strategy: using Kurdish relations as a geopolitical tool against rivals while prioritizing state stability. This reflects a core dilemma of balancing offensive opportunities against the defensive need to maintain regional status quos.
To counter perceptions of neocolonialism and project failures, Riyadh must prioritize local hiring, create joint oversight committees, and reinvest profits in community needs. This shift is essential for sustainable influence in Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea.
By supporting groups like the armed Jamaa al-Islamiyya to influence Lebanon’s parliament, Turkey’s strategy risks mirroring Iran’s use of Hezbollah as a proxy to project power and block undesired foreign policy shifts.
Turkey is a vital transit hub for Caspian energy and a critical regional bridge, making its partnership indispensable for the EU’s strategic goals in the South Caucasus.