The SDF lost most territory after Arab fighters defected, forcing it into integration talks with Damascus under U.S. pressure to prevent wider conflict.
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While the government swiftly condemned major attacks like the Damascus church bombing, many Christians suspect official complicity. Despite enhanced security, a climate of suspicion persists, challenging authorities to build trust and prevent the community’s exodus, as occurred in Iraq.
With the SDF and Damascus government clashing, security at IS detention sites is failing. The crisis accelerates the need to transfer site control and forces a long-delayed reckoning over repatriating nearly 10,000 third-country nationals held indefinitely.
Riyadh’s strategy blends cooperation with Turkey against Iran, leveraging tribal networks in northeast Syria, and rallying Gulf diplomatic pressure against Israeli expansion. Success depends on Damascus’s ability to unify the country amid persistent external interference.
Despite security reforms and bureaucratic rebuilding, public trust remains fragile. Success now hinges on delivering economic improvement, drafting an inclusive constitution, and fostering local reconciliation to address deep societal fractures and consolidate the post-Assad state.
The YPG’s downfall resulted from overestimating foreign backing and underestimating Damascus’s resolve. The government’s strategy of offering Kurdish rights isolated the militia, revealing its lack of popular support and the conditional nature of international patronage.
Riyadh employs a calculated, risk-averse strategy: using Kurdish relations as a geopolitical tool against rivals while prioritizing state stability. This reflects a core dilemma of balancing offensive opportunities against the defensive need to maintain regional status quos.
Israel’s strategy replaces Iran’s “ring of fire” with a “ring of buffer zones,” carving out controlled spaces along its borders. This reassertion of frontiers aims to prevent cross‑border threats and solidify a post‑Axis regional order dominated by Israeli security interests.
By positioning itself as a protector of Druze communities, Israel aims to expand its buffer zone in southern Syria. This approach contradicts broader regional stability efforts and could inadvertently revive Iranian influence—the very outcome Israel claims it seeks to prevent.
Trump’s strategy blends deepened Gulf partnerships, pressure on Iran, and pushes for Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. While seeking a deal with Tehran on his terms, he maintains strong ties with Israel and aims to contain regional threats, leveraging unpredictability as a strategic asset.