Diego Garcia, a UK territory with a major U.S. base, is central to Trump’s Iran contingency planning.
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Iran faces a historic leadership transition as Khamenei ages. Three scenarios loom—clerical continuity, military rule, or collapse—none promising democracy.
Gulf states are terrified of a U.S. war with Iran, facing retaliation, economic collapse, and a destabilized neighborhood.
Trump’s tweet forcing Maliki’s withdrawal exposed Iraqi sovereignty’s fragility; leaders are chosen in Washington, not Baghdad.
Khamenei threatens to sink a U.S. carrier, but supercarriers are extraordinarily hard to sink—the real danger is devastating retaliation.
The U.S. has assembled its largest regional force since 2003; a surprise deal, not war, remains slightly more probable.
Maliki’s failed third-term bid marks the end of a sectarian era; Trump’s veto reaffirmed the U.S.-backed state’s limits.
U.S.-Iran talks produced a “guiding framework,” but the next round will be decisive: either technical steps toward a deal or escalation.
The day after Khamenei will be an IRGC-managed power struggle, not liberation; real change requires a second, contested phase.
Iraq’s post-“October Uprising” generation is a new, non-hierarchical force challenging the political elite through horizontal mobilization.