Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader amid war, signaling hardline continuity and IRGC consolidation.
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Crocker: Iran war biggest shift since 1979. IRGC to rule. Air power won’t dictate outcome.
IRGC severely degraded but distributed command preserves continuity. Ideological-economic hybrid may consolidate into military-dominant state.
Khamenei stacked Assembly with hardliners; successors Arafi or Mojtaba ensure continuity of repression and confrontation.
Mojtaba’s succession means revolutionary continuity: clerical rule, anti-imperial resistance, and IRGC dominance over reform.
Four succession scenarios loom: clerical rule, leadership flight, military junta, or uprising—each with distinct risks.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s IRGC ties position him for succession, potentially leading to military rule and abolished leadership post.
Khamenei’s death shifts Iran toward IRGC dominance, dividing public and escalating regional conflict amid power vacuum.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s wartime succession, backed by IRGC networks and personal trauma, risks vengeful hardline rule and nuclear push.
Past protests failed without leadership or organization, and surviving IRGC must back any opposition movement to succeed.