Unresolvable nuclear demands and Hormuz control gaps make US-Iran grand bargain structurally unlikely.
Browsing: Harrison Kass
Iran’s “navy of ghosts”—mines, drones, and shore-based missiles—achieves a functional blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by making commercial transit uninsurable.
Coalition air superiority over Iran enables strike operations but falls short of supremacy as residual threats persist.
Iran’s proxies’ role: Hezbollah active, Iraqi militias harass, Houthis restrained. Centralized command disrupted.
US builds ~90 Tomahawks/year, used 400 in 72 hours. Replacement slow. Readiness risk.
IRGC severely degraded but distributed command preserves continuity. Ideological-economic hybrid may consolidate into military-dominant state.
A U.S. carrier strike on Iran would be a calibrated, limited operation—not regime change—and a tactical tool, not a strategic solution.