Europe leads a 51-nation effort to reopen Hormuz, diverging from US blockade but sharing goals. Deployment speed remains uncertain.
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Two-thirds disapprove of Trump’s Iran war. Congress faces 60-day deadline and $100bn vote. Public support for Middle East engagement erodes.
Eleven of 13 major economies are more energy-vulnerable than a decade ago. COVID lessons on supply chain security went unlearned.
Iran’s regime survives. Trump talks oil money, not liberation. Iranian hopes of overthrow betrayed by a war of attrition.
Pakistan’s military brokered US-Iran talks, not diplomats. Army chief Munir’s access and credibility made the difference. No deal, but a shift.
Lebanon-Israel talks inch forward despite Hezbollah’s coup threats. Beirut wants slow disarmament; Washington and Israel demand results.
Hormuz is a legal vacuum: sea law vs. naval warfare. No rule says which prevails. Iran, US stuck.
Trump says don’t rush him. But Iran holds Hormuz, mines take six months to clear, and US public support is cratering.
US-China rivalry echoes 1914: arms races, misperception, and fear of decline. War is not inevitable, but preparation may guarantee it.
Piracy falls, but proxy wars rise. China, Russia, US compete in Gulf of Guinea as Sahel terrorists move toward ports.