Iran war hijacks Trump-Xi agenda. Shared economic fears may force superpower compromise, despite friction over alleged Chinese arms support to Tehran.
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Tactical wins fail to deliver US-Israeli political objectives; Iran leverages Hormuz for bargaining.
US seizes Iranian ship. Blockade remains. Strait reopens then falters. Talks stall. Escalation risks spiral toward open conflict.
Ceasefire holds, but US blockade and Israeli strikes on Lebanon push Iran. The Strait remains closed. Talks stalled. War risks return.
Iraq’s balancing act fails. Iran-linked militias launch 750 strikes. Oil exports halt. Gas imports cut. Fiscal collapse looms.
Thirteen percent of global oil supply is offline. Strategic reserves run dry by late April. Ration now or face catastrophe.
Iran struck Jordan with 250 missiles. US bases became targets. Now Jordanians are asking whether hosting American troops is worth the price.
Iranian militias strike Iraq’s oil fields, targeting US and Chinese firms. Western investment is at risk; Iraq’s energy dependence on Iran may persist.
Eighty-three percent of Iranian strikes hit Gulf states. The region’s safe-haven brand is shattered, and the risk premium is now permanent.
Gulf states endured Iranian retaliation for a US-led system they could not openly acknowledge. The pretense of ambiguity has become its principal weakness.