Tehran’s leaders, hardened by war, pursue relentless escalation to force Washington from the Middle East and accept Iranian power.
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Geoeconomic fragmentation deepened as Washington’s energy buffer and China’s reserves softened the shock, while allies faced shortages and hard choices.
Washington’s disclosure of orbital weapons raises stakes with China and Russia, testing legal limits and the future of space security.
America’s nuclear industry has technology but lacks the integrated financing and construction model Russia and China use to win deals.
US-Houthi Talks test whether Washington can compartmentalize war as Tehran debates converting Houthi gains into political leverage
US-Gulf Relations shift from oil to technology as Gulf states multiply partners and China gains influence without bases.
US Overseas Bases shift from tripwires to bullseyes when host nations restrict access while Iran war exposes sites as liabilities.
Saudi Arabia questions U.S. protection as Iran strikes oil infrastructure, turning to the Mecca Pact and China for security guarantees.
U.S. selectivity is breaking the UN, as vetoes, funding cuts, and abandoned peacekeeping missions accelerate decomposition into competing fragments.
Iran survives six months of war as US costs mount, Congress resists, and Tehran escalates to force negotiations.