Iran war evokes 1913: fragile alliances, black swan events risk global conflagration. Time to end.
Browsing: Risk
Iranian Kurds face risky dilemma amid unclear US endgame, past abandonments, and regime brutality.
Defang Iran, don’t destroy. Regime change risks chaos, not democracy. Aim for Islamic Republic 2.0.
Hormuz: 20M b/d oil at risk. Even perceived danger triggers global inflation. “Limited” strikes impossible.
Iran war roils energy markets: Brent tops $92, Hormuz choked, Qatari LNG halted. Strategic reserves cushion.
Netanyahu’s gamble: regime change in Iran to secure election victory. But it’s a high-stakes bet.
Indonesia pledged 8,000 troops to a U.S.-led Gaza force—outside UN mandate, with unclear legal protections and cost.
Trump’s approval ratings hit a new low—60% disapprove—making a strike on Iran a risky political bet.
A Gulf escalation is a systemic stress test: energy interdependence means any Hormuz disruption triggers global price contagion.
Regime change in Iran would not bring liberation—it would set the region ablaze, as Iraq, Libya, and Syria show.