Browsing:   Alex Vatanka

Tehran can stomach a wartime deal but cannot yet imagine a durable peace with America.

“In the battle over messaging, Trump’s ambiguity is giving Iran’s narrative the edge, reinforcing the regime’s claim of resilience.”

“He remains a product of the war, the Guards, and Ali Khamenei’s system of loyal advancement.”

Mojtaba’s succession: father-to-son under war. System chose survival over doctrine. Islamic Republic’s future hangs.

Iran war could empower IRGC: distributed power ensures continuity. External pressure reinforces hardest elements.

US interceptor stocks deplete against Iran’s drones as unclear objectives and unsustainable costs risk uncontrollable escalation.

Iran’s opposition is deeply fractured and unable to capitalize on the regime’s weakness; unity is essential for change.

Iran believes a U.S.-Israeli strike is coming; if attacked, it will widen the war, hitting U.S. bases and Gulf oil.