The regime faces unprecedented internal dissent coupled with severe external vulnerability after U.S. and Israeli strikes. While security forces remain cohesive for now, the scale of protests and comprehensive internet blackout signal the leadership’s perception of an existential threat.
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Despite tactical Israeli and U.S. military successes against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran, none have produced permanent strategic victories, leaving Gaza destroyed, resistance movements intact, and regional conflict expanding, while U.S. military commitments and costs continue to grow.
With Assad’s fall and shifting regional dynamics, the United States and Türkiye now share interests in preventing renewed Syrian conflict, limiting migration, countering ISIS resurgence, reducing Iranian and Israeli escalation risks, and supporting a unitary Syrian state through coordinated diplomacy and security cooperation.
It proposes a phased transition: maintain strategic ambiguity, strengthen allies, bolster Taiwan’s self-defense, revitalize the One China Policy, expand diplomacy with Beijing, and reassure regional partners. Only after these steps should Washington clearly rule out direct military intervention.
China offers Saudi Arabia an alternative security paradigm, essential economic partnership, and a foreign policy of mutual respect, challenging U.S. assumptions