Riyadh’s strategy blends cooperation with Turkey against Iran, leveraging tribal networks in northeast Syria, and rallying Gulf diplomatic pressure against Israeli expansion. Success depends on Damascus’s ability to unify the country amid persistent external interference.
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Despite security reforms and bureaucratic rebuilding, public trust remains fragile. Success now hinges on delivering economic improvement, drafting an inclusive constitution, and fostering local reconciliation to address deep societal fractures and consolidate the post-Assad state.
The YPG’s downfall resulted from overestimating foreign backing and underestimating Damascus’s resolve. The government’s strategy of offering Kurdish rights isolated the militia, revealing its lack of popular support and the conditional nature of international patronage.
Riyadh employs a calculated, risk-averse strategy: using Kurdish relations as a geopolitical tool against rivals while prioritizing state stability. This reflects a core dilemma of balancing offensive opportunities against the defensive need to maintain regional status quos.
Israel’s strategy replaces Iran’s “ring of fire” with a “ring of buffer zones,” carving out controlled spaces along its borders. This reassertion of frontiers aims to prevent cross‑border threats and solidify a post‑Axis regional order dominated by Israeli security interests.
By positioning itself as a protector of Druze communities, Israel aims to expand its buffer zone in southern Syria. This approach contradicts broader regional stability efforts and could inadvertently revive Iranian influence—the very outcome Israel claims it seeks to prevent.
Trump’s strategy blends deepened Gulf partnerships, pressure on Iran, and pushes for Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. While seeking a deal with Tehran on his terms, he maintains strong ties with Israel and aims to contain regional threats, leveraging unpredictability as a strategic asset.
Unresolved tensions risk an ISIS resurgence and a prolonged Kurdish insurgency. Concessions like Kurdish community police, recognizing cultural rights in the constitution, and granting SDF leaders official roles could build trust and integrate Kurds into a unified Syria.
Fighting between Syrian forces and the SDF highlights the failure of U.S. mediation to implement a lasting political and military integration deal. Stalled Israel-Syria talks further show Trump’s diplomacy lacks the detailed process needed to resolve core security disputes.
By Kheder Khaddour and Issam Kayssi As Washington reduces its presence in the country, the success of its withdrawal and…