US exercises entrench Haftar’s family dynasty in Libya. Washington risks replacing Gaddafi with another military strongman model.
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Russia and China exploit Iran war to undermine US power, study US tactics, and erode alliances. A quagmire benefits both.
US blockade came too late. Before the war, it could have worked. After Iran adapted, it became a crisis-widening tool.
Iran retains 70% of its ballistic missiles. Underground cities survived. US failed to deliver a death blow to the program.
Iraq’s last source of legitimacy is a reclusive cleric. But even Sistani’s fatwa cannot stop Iran-backed militias.
Three scenarios: proxy war, economic strangulation, or full Gulf war. Diplomacy’s window is narrow but not yet closed.
Iran war hijacks Trump-Xi agenda. Shared economic fears may force superpower compromise, despite friction over alleged Chinese arms support to Tehran.
Hormuz has become Iran’s strongest bargaining chip, testing U.S. resolve more than its naval power.
Dual U.S.–Iran blockades around Hormuz defy precedent, and neither side can count on a quick or decisive outcome.
Lebanon pays for Hormuz via diesel price doubling and generator bills rising 35%, not direct shortages—imported inflation hits a bankrupt state.