“Tehran cannot defend its leaders, but it can impose unbearable costs on the global economy.”
Browsing: Succession
Khamenei’s passing creates a vacuum where the IRGC seeks total control, while reformists hope to trade military aggression for economic relief and survival.
Eight Iranians to watch: new Supreme Leader unseen, president sidelined, security chief reportedly killed.
Mojtaba’s succession: father-to-son under war. System chose survival over doctrine. Islamic Republic’s future hangs.
Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader amid war, signaling hardline continuity and IRGC consolidation.
Mojtaba Khamenei elected Supreme Leader amid war, signaling revolutionary continuity and institutional resilience.
Khamenei stacked Assembly with hardliners; successors Arafi or Mojtaba ensure continuity of repression and confrontation.
Trump can’t select Iran’s leader. Post-Khamenei choice: nation vs cause. US levers: economy, reconciliation, security.
Four succession scenarios loom: clerical rule, leadership flight, military junta, or uprising—each with distinct risks.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s IRGC ties position him for succession, potentially leading to military rule and abolished leadership post.